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To: Defiant
My take: One of two things is going on.

The first one would be a betrayal, it's what we fear, the passing of a bill that would be the Trojan Horse to go to conference with the Senate bill.

The second: He IS killing the bill, while defusing the media/democrat demagoguery by making it look like he's giving it a chance. The reason I'm thinking this is his likely method: He won't allow ANY vote on something the majority of the House GOP wants to bring up, otherwise known as the Hastert rule.

I'm not trusting enough to believe we've won, I just think it's leaning our way as long as we keep the pressure on. I hope this is true, see some evidence of it being true, just don't trust it yet.....

41 posted on 07/11/2013 10:06:04 AM PDT by Lakeshark (I steal taglines - KILL THE BILL!)
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To: Lakeshark
Here is my take is what is going on: The GOPe are all-in on the Senate bill. They are for it 100 percent. The House leadership is GOPe. They might tinker with it, but if it came up for a vote they would be for it. In fact, Ryan has been arguing for it, joining with Rubio. So start with the premise that the leaders of the House GOP are for the Senate bill, but have to find a way to get their rank and file to go along.

Now, among that rank and file, you have a percentage of Rinos that are all for it. They are the ones that will vote with the Dems after the conference bill comes back. Then you have a large group of conservatives who don't like the Senate bill, but who think that we need to do something. They are the ones Boehner and the GOPe will end up screwing. That may be the majority of the caucus, I don't know. Then you have another group, the one I would be in, who say "don't do anything. Just enforce the law". Stop following the marxist agenda and reacting to them all the time. Deal with the economy, jobs, Obamacare, budget, excessive regulations, etc. etc. The things that Americans care about, not the manufactured things that the Dems are pushing with the help of their friends in the media so that Republicans will never win another election.

So, those are the factions. Now, the statement means that the conservative representatives who think we need to do something are in charge. They are going to work on a bill. It will undoubtedly be strong on security and enforcement and all the things we will say "hurray!" over. And at some point, Boehner will say, "good job, boys, let's bring it for a vote". Dems will huff and puff and it will seem like a good bill, so all the Republicans will vote for it and it will pass.

If the Republicans care about where a revenue bill originates, the Senate will take up the House bill and amend it to be identical to the Senate bill that has already passed. Then pass it. Then there will be a conference. Now, this cannot be denied: the conference committee will be appointed by the House leadership that likes the Senate bill. Boehner hates real conservatives. No one will be on that committee who would say no to a deal because it has citizenship. Ryan will be on it for one. Other GOPe guys personally appointed by Boehner. They will do a deal with the Senate, and we will not like it. And Boehner will see that it comes back and is passed, whether he has to use Dem votes or not. Those same dems who moaned the first time will all vote for it this time, maybe even pretending to dislike the bill while doing so, to give conservatives cover. It will all be theater. I don't know if Boehner can avoid a vote on it when it comes back from conference, but I don't think he can. I think a majority can force a vote. So, he can't be blamed for violating the Hastert rule.

The only way to avoid this whole charade is to not play the game. Don't accept the premise of a broken immigration system that JUST HAS TO BE FIXED RIGHT NOW! The only thing broken is the enforcement. I would argue that there will be no discussion about what to do with those here until we have actually tried enforcing existing law AND implemented border security. Until then, we have nothing to talk about.

So, taking it up as an issue at all is to play into the Dems hands. The statement indicates that the house will do that. That is why it is bad. We have to convince the group that is conservative, but wants to do SOMETHING that we do not have to do anything. Except apply counter pressure--hearings about lack of enforcement, employers who use illegal labor and don't hire Americans, effects on US wages, etc. etc. And you are right, the people and our pressure are having an impact. We do need to keep it up. And what we need to demand is NO BILL. Just enforcement. Regards.

47 posted on 07/11/2013 11:36:49 AM PDT by Defiant (In the next rebellion, the rebels will be the ones carrying the American flag.)
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