Posted on 07/09/2013 8:21:26 PM PDT by Second Amendment First
Republicans walked away from their 2012 debacle hell-bent on fixing their problems with Hispanics. Now, they appear hell-bent on making them worse.
In private conversations, top Republicans on Capitol Hill now predict comprehensive immigration reform will die a slow, months-long death in the House. Like with background checks for gun buyers, the conventional wisdom that the party would never kill immigration reform, and risk further alienating Hispanic voters, was always wrong — and ignored the reality that most House Republicans are white conservatives representing mostly white districts.
These members, and the vast majority of their voters, couldn’t care less whether Marco Rubio, Bill O’Reilly and Karl Rove say this is smart politics and policy.
Republican leaders will huddle with their members Wednesday afternoon to plot their public strategy. But after holding countless listening sessions, it is clear to these leaders that getting even smaller, popular pieces of reform will be a tough sell. The House plans a piecemeal approach: a border-security bill this month, maybe one or two items a month in the fall.
Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) held a town meeting last week where 25 of the 100 people spoke out on immigration — and every single one of them argued for staying clear of anything remotely resembling the Senate-passed bill.
“Our constituents don’t trust our government,” Cotton said. And he is reluctant to pass even pieces of immigration reform that he thinks are needed — like a better tracking system for people in the country on visas — because he is concerned they could become “a Trojan horse in a conference committee for a package that puts legalization first and enforcement later.”
Top Republican and Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill see the momentum swinging decidedly against getting a deal this Congress. Rubio persuaded only 13 fellow Republican senators to back the bill; the editors of the National Review and Weekly Standard offered a rare, joint editorial in opposition to it this week; and private GOP headcounts show only a small fraction of House Republicans would ever vote for anything approximating the Senate deal.
Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a leader of the House’s hell-no-on-immigration-reform caucus, held a jam-packed meeting Monday night to walk through why his party should proudly defeat the bipartisan bill. King said the Senate’s immigration plan would help “elites who want cheap labor, Democratic power brokers, and those who hire illegal labor.”
“It would hurt Republicans, and I don’t think you can make an argument otherwise,” King said. “Two out of every three of the new citizens would be Democrats.” Some might dismiss this as the rantings of a bombastic right-winger — but his take is mainstream theology among House Republicans.
It’s possible Republicans will change their minds, listen to Rubio and Paul Ryan, and ultimately agree to something Democrats could live with. But, even if they do, the weeks ahead will show they did it kicking and screaming, undermining much of the credit they might have gotten from Hispanic voters.
This drives the Rubio and Roves of the world nuts. A large number of establishment Republicans think their party will seal defeat in 2016 if it cannot move beyond this issue.
“Republicans would remain stuck in a defensive, reactionary posture with persuadable Latino voters,” said Luke Frans, executive director of Resurgent Republic, a conservative research group that did extensive polling and focus groups with Hispanic voters in 2012. Mitt Romney lost Hispanics by better than 40 points, and polls consistently show Republicans won’t do much better absent progress on issues Hispanics care most about, starting with immigration laws.
Most House Republicans quite frankly don’t care.
First, most represent districts with scant Hispanic populations. They will win or lose based on the views of whites, especially older ones, since that is who votes in their districts in off-year elections.
“The belief among House Republicans is that they’re going to do well in the midterms, and that instead of negotiating now from a position of weakness, they should wait until 2015,” said a lobbyist close to House GOP leaders. “They’ll be stronger in the House and maybe control the Senate.”
Second, most Republicans in the House and Senate just don’t believe Hispanics will vote for them in 2014, 2016 and perhaps ever — simply because they backed immigration reform.
“You don’t change demographic support by passing legislation in Washington,” a Senate GOP leadership aide said. “The [George W. Bush] prescription drug plan was supposed to fundamentally alter the way seniors related to us. The only way you get that is with the candidate, like Ronald Reagan with blue-collar voters.”
Third, Republicans think they will look like fools with voters who would seriously think about voting for them if they backed a law predicated on trusting President Barack Obama to carry out tough border security measures.
With even the most modest measures facing an uphill fight, getting to a pathway to citizenship — which Democrats will demand be part of any eventual deal — looks like a pipe-dream.
A beautiful example of Politico dragged kicking and screaming into acknowledging reality.
Politico BS.
Ok dudes, if Bohner puts up a bill that does nothing but the border do we have to demand our House reps vote against that?
Mine Elijah Cummings might vote NO anyway wo my support.
Slow death? How about a fast death...death by repeated bullets to the head?
Rule of Law.
Secure the border as required by existing law. No excuses. No discussion. Just do it.
Enforce existing law.
got that right!
“Secure the border as required by existing law. No excuses. No discussion. Just do it.”
Why, that’s so simple and clear! I’m surprised the GOP has not seen that! lol
Simple logic will serve here...
If the immigration bill was good for republicans then the dems would be dead set against it.
If it just broke even...say 50% of new voters would be dem and 50% repub they would still be against it since it would drain cash that they use to buy votes from other groups they have made dependent on them for their livelihood.
Build the damn fence first!!!
GOP sees it and they don’t care. They are a Democrat front group.
so politico wants it to drag on.
now that we know their stratagy, we need to keep urging a quick, complete and decisive “no way” in the house. nada, zip, finito. keep calling.
Don’t believe it for one minute. Boehner is working right now to betray us. He only needs 30 Republicans to do it. There are more than enough chairmen to do it.
JUST KILL THIS OBAMANATION!
“They are a Democrat front group.”
Seems like it, eh? I was told when I was a kid, the Soviets get to vote, but everyone they vote for is a party member so it does not matter.
And the ethnic compadres of those felons who do possess all the benefits of citizenship and are not blindly in lock step with anything that comes out of the party which out of some joke of cosmic proportions call itself "democratic" are a minority of a minority of a minority. Most of them stopped listening to the instructions of their priests years ago and most priests who care for their flocks in Spanish are closet Marxists and worse anyway.
So what is it again that is so damned urgent about Immigration Reform that the Republican party is supposed to lean back in the chair and hand the barber with that evil glint in his eye a newly stropped straight razor? Being stupid and suicidal simultaneously can and does occur with some people. The combination seems to be a virtual epidemic among Republicans with money and past or present physical proximity to Washington. But they are not the voting grass roots of their party and without that base there is no f***ing party. Just a bunch of Potomac Basin swamp rats nibbling on the fringes of political power.
Only chance to stop the Amnesty bill is for the House not to consider any immigration related bill at all.
Michelle Bachman explained it. ANY House bill no matter if it promises all the border security in the world will be a trojan horse.NO bill at all must come out of the House because it will be merged with the Senate Amnesty and trojan horse bill. Call congress.
Tell them to stop all Amnesty or immigration bills.they are all trojan horse bills. some will promise border security that will never be enforced anyway.
Bachmann explained it . The House will write a border security bill only . then in conference the senate will add the virus and then bring it back to the house. then the conservatives won’t vote for it but democrats will all vote for it so then they only need 10% of republicans to pass Amnesty and the virus that will destroy America. so any bill at all will be added the virus . so best thing is for Boner to not let any immigration bill at all come out of the House. that is the only hope . call boner and the members of the House.
Tom Tancredo echos what Michelle Bachmann said.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3036438/posts
call congress . no bill at all from the House
and of course boner must not bring the Senate bill for the House to vote on. no senate bill, no border security bill from the House .nothing.
Amazing, isn’t it? The Democrats have co-opted 2 of the 4 viables in the Senate due to their rookie naivete’; Pat Toomey in the Spring on Gun Control and Marco Rubio now on Immigration.
That leaves the more ‘fring-y’ Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.
Looks like the 2016 standard-bearer is going to have to be a current/former Governor...and who is the big name-recognition guy in that bunch? Jeb Bush, now that Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal have proven themselves to be not-ready-for-primetime.
Face it kids; we’re back to Bush/Clinton - Clinton/Bush.
Aaarrrrgh!
It seems that the operative mantra is “Immigration Reform,” and any legislative bill bearing that name deserves to be supported, or else sure political death will ensue.
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