Here's a closer look at tariffs % total revenue (data & sources here) which saw the big drop from '33 to '44. Plotting that along with real gdp yr/yr--
--and with unemployment.
--shows a strong correlation between lowering tariffs and improving economic conditions.
Correlation is not causation. There were at least three things that occurred around 1950. Changes in monetary policy, lowering of tariffs, and implementation of safety nets.
Your graph in 103 showed that changes in monetary policy are correlated with improving economic conditions. That makes sense and fits with economic theory.
Tariffs are correlated as well but in my opinion only because they were implemented at the same time as the change in monetary policy. Again, the logical conclusion of your previous assertion that trade deficits are correlated with low unemployment is that we should eliminate exports let the trade deficit soar, unemployment should shrink dramatically. But it's illogical that trade deficits should cause low unemployment especially when we can quantify the unemployment caused by imports.
For that matter safety nets went in about the same time. But I don't see you arguing for more safety nets. Yet you argue for lower tariffs. Why? I can at least argue that safety nets allow people some time to find a match for their skills and therefore benefit the economy. But I wouldn't argue for more safety nets at this time. I do see a scenario where mass production of general purpose robotics could create huge labor dislocations and necessitate an increase in safety nets.
There could certainly be some amount of moral hazard effect from the implementation of safety nets that accounts for some of the unemployment increase, but I don't for a second believe 23% of Americans have succumbed to moral hazard. I believe the off-shoring has reduced the available jobs and left millions unwillingly unemployed.
What is undeniable is that we have a huge trade deficit with china. A huge trade deficit overall. We know that we have lost industries to off-shoring. And we have a large number of Americans sitting unemployed.
Raising imports tariffs would initially help pay for the unemployment costs reducing our gov't debt, and long term it would reduce the trade deficit, bring industries back to America and put Americans back to work. That would be good for individual Americans, good for the American economy and go a long way to fixing the budget deficit through increased Gov't revenues and lower safety net payments.