Posted on 05/06/2013 6:45:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.
Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.
While Colbert Busch is seen as too liberal, 48% of voters think that Sanford's views are 'about right' on the issues compared to just 38% who see him as too conservative. Sanford's also seen some repair to his image over the course of the campaign. Although he's still unpopular, sporting a -11 net favorability rating at 43/54, that's up a net 13 points from our first poll in March when he was at 34/58.
If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That's why Sanford's campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that's been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don't like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin. President Obama doesn't fare a whole lot better in the district. His approval is 39/54, and voters say they have a higher opinion of Sanford than him by a 48/44 spread.
The other key development in this race over the last two weeks is that Republicans are returning to the electorate. On our last poll, conducted right after the trespassing charges against Sanford became public, we found that the likely electorate had voted for Mitt Romney by only 5 points in a district that he actually won by 18. That suggested many Republican voters were depressed and planning to stay home. On our final poll we find an electorate that's Romney +13- that's still more Democratic than the turnout from last fall, but it's a lot better for Sanford than it was a couple weeks ago. Colbert Busch could certainly still win this race. Sanford remains unpopular and she's run a strong campaign. But we said 2 weeks ago that if Sanford was going to win he needed to shift the focus away from him and toward Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, and it appears he's done that effectively enough to give him the momentum headed into election day.
Considering the alternative...
Is this a dem district?
It’s said to be a Pub district.
I would be voting for our rapscallion rather than the democrap rapscallion
No, solid GOP, Tim Scott’s district, vacated when he was appointed to fill DeMint’s Senate seat.
Sanford is a rare beast, a fink, but not a RINO.
I think Sanford is a clown and an embarassment. But if he wins it’s going to be a ROTFLMAO moment.
How sad that the GOP couldn’t come up with a less embarrassing candidate.
He needs to win, then be primaried out in 2014.
WIN WIN strategy for leftists. If he wins, they gloat over his situational ethics. Otherwise, he keeps conservatives home on election day, ala what Obama did. (It did not help, that Sanford got McCain’s endorsement during one of the previous election cycles.)
Strategy for the left, tragedy for the middle and right; because long ago in 1994-1995, Mark Sanford seemed to be a steady Republican.
Better a live girl than a dead boy I guess.
Exactly. The GOP doesn’t need to commit suicide again by letting a Dem win a very Red district but this sleazy idiot needs to then be retired the next time around.
I remember four short years ago, so many of us were looking to Sanford as the next big conservative thing.... then came the Argentinian squeeze.
He needs to win, then be primaried out in 2014.
****************************************************
Primaried out after what will undoubtably be a year and a half of rock-solid conservative votes and other activity in the House? I don’t think so—that’s only a dream in the hearts of RINOs and progressive democrats.
I suspect he’ll be King RINO, as compromised as he is.
I suspect he’ll be King RINO, as compromised as he is.
***********************************************************
You’d probably be wise not to bet the farm on that being the outcome.
What he did was dumb but its time to move on and see what he does in the future.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.