Japanese Yen Sinks Near Four-Year Low

Wall Street Journal ^ | 04/10/2013 | MATTHEW WALTER

[SeekAndFind]

The yen plunged to its lowest level in nearly four years and showed no signs of slowing its weakening trend in response to the Bank of Japan's latest push to ease monetary policy.

Investors have been aggressively selling the Japanese currency since policy makers at the BOJ announced last week they will print trillions of yen to pump money into Japan's sluggish economy in a bid to keep interest rates low and spark faster growth.

"Both Japanese and non-Japanese investors appear to be selling Japanese government bonds equally aggressively," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon BK +0.97% . "That could be the beginning of a more deep-seated process."

The falling yen sent the dollar to ¥99.34 by late afternoon from ¥97.55 late Friday. The euro also climbed against the yen to ¥129.19 from ¥126.77.

The latest developments at the BOJ accelerated the yen's five-month losing streak, which many analysts view as a sign the currency is on a path lower against most major currencies that will last for some time. The yen has lost more than 14% against the dollar since the start of the year, and an extension of that move would be a significant shift from the past five years, when instability in the U.S. and Europe kept traditional havens including the yen in high demand.

"A multiyear turn in trend has transpired," said MacNeil Curry, a technical currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "On a long-term basis that bodes for more yen weakness."

[stuartcr]

Nice, I hope it keeps dropping until July, that’s when I’m heading back there.

[Vigilanteman]

Historically, late March / early April is the low point in the year for the yen as Japanese companies call their other currencies home to dress up the balance sheet for the stockholders.

Tax remittances are also due at the end of April, so more demand for yen to pay taxes = higher prices versus other foreign currencies.

The trend generally tends to swing back the other way starting in Golden Week when Japanese tourists head abroad to buy other currencies. And, more importantly, Japanese companies do the same with their overseas investments.

[Gen-X-Dad]

The ZIRP currency wars are off and running! Who can devalue their currency the quickest in the musical chair game we call global trade. The Japanese must be desperate between China and the FED battling it out.

[stuartcr]

Last year during Golden week, it was in the mid 70s

[meyer]

Apparently, they’ve got a faster printing press than we do.

Probably a Honda - they rev up pretty high!

[Vigilanteman]

What was it in late March or early April?

[stuartcr]

Last year, it was in the low 80s. The whole last couple years, it’s been bad. It’s getting better though. Last Sept, it was getting close to 90. I remember when it was 120-130, just 8-10yrs ago.

[Vigilanteman]

There is a great tool available at Oanda.com. Just graph the currencies and roll over the week or day with your cursor. I found the tough for the following years at the following weeks:

1. 2012: March 19
   
2. 2011: April 11
   
3. 2010: April 12
   
4. 2009: April 6

Remarkable consistency here though, of course, it can't foretell the long term trends. But it does track the predictable seasonal consistency of selling foreign currency to buy yen to dress up balance sheets and pay taxes.

[stuartcr]

That’s usually what we use for our expenses

[sushiman]

When I moved to Japan in 1985 , it was around 280 yen to a dollar .

[stuartcr]

Those were the days