Cities are going bankrupt in California. See Stockton. Interest rates will go up, history dictates that it will happen. They are in about the same shape as GM was circa 2006. High inflation and interest rate hikes is all it would take to sink California.
Well, sure, which is why it’s ceteris paribus. ;) Also, their present deficit is 15 billion, not 5. Which means that at their present rate you’re looking at about 30 years. Ceteris Paribus.
Their problem is interest compounding in reverse - as they pile up more debt, the rate of increase in their interest cost will increase.
They have to cut at least 10 billion to slow the bleeding to a semi-sustainable rate.