How many people are left paying taxes in California? 40% tops? I would double your numbers. And California is doing nothing to stem the tide of future Calper’s and welfare cases. I put the number of years at 10.
Well, unless interest rates increase or there is a further deterioration in California’s finances, that’s just not going to happen, sorry.
Yes, California’s in terrible shape, but they are not quite insolvent. There is still time for California to get their stuff together and reverse things.
California’s like a business that’s in the red every month, owes more than it’s worth but they aren’t bleeding fast enough for interest rates to exceed revenue for quite some time. If California can take in 20 percent of the total income in California, then right now - their interest rates are still only about 5 percent of their revenues. Concerning, yes, but not insolvent.
If I’m taking per capita income at 40k, then debt is per capita debt and interest.