[fwdude]

My guess is that Kennedy will strike DOMA down as a federal law and then rule in favor of the states on the prop 8 issue.

Every part of DOMA is essential to make it protect what it was intended to: marriage. Only one part falling will collapse the rest of it.

If Part 3, the federal recognition clause, is struck down, then counterfeit marriage will be exportable into every state. Technically, states which have their own marriage amendments don't have to recognize them for state purposes, but with the federal strings attached to all that a state does, how long will that last?

[what's up]

then counterfeit marriage will be exportable into every state

Only potentially exportable.

There are 40 states holding the line on traditional marriage. I don't think that will change a whole lot.