I’m sorry, but this analysis by Mr Hanson completely misses the real reason for invading Iraq. It was oil, or course, but not in the way most people think. The problem was that UN sanctions were set to expire at the end of 2003 and the US had run out of ploys to extend them. Saddam, meanwhile, had begun granting oil concessions to foreign countries, including one that had already been signed with Chinese arms-maker Norinco in partnership with other Chinese firms. Upon the lifting of sanctions, the Chinese would have been able to effectively garrison the massive and undeveloped Al Hadab field and were in line to sign another concession for Halfaya. It was with these sales of in-ground reserves to potentially hostile outside players that Saddam crossed the line and triggered the “Carter Doctrine,” which commits the US to treat any outside attempt to gain control of Mid-East oil reserves as a direct threat to US interests that should be met if necessary by force. Bush was faced with the urgent need to preempt Chinese encroachment into Iraq and resorted to the “cavalry charge” approach with an outright invasion: horrendously expensive but dramatically effective. All the WMD, nation-building, Al Qaeda and 9/11 yammering was just window dressing to avoid talking about the real issue: China. For a detailed explanation of all this, see Ch 7 of “The Oil Card.” http://www.amazon.com/Oil-Card-Economic-Warfare-Century/dp/097779539X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1199719101&sr=8-1
Was the Iraq war of 2003 worth the cost? Well consider the cost of a direct military confrontation between the US and China. In that context, Bush’s war was cheap at twice the price.
It is worth noting that, with Chinese investment funds, Saddam had planned to be producing nearly as much oil by now as the Saudis. That was another problem for the US, which has been trying since the late 1990s to jack up oil prices to bolster the crippled Russians and crimp the import-dependent Chinese on their input costs. And look where we are? Iraq production and exports are still bumping along at a fraction of what they could have been and pose no threat to world oil pricing. The Chinese have been allowed to participate in some service contracts there, alongside Western majors, but are not allowed to bring their own security forces, have to take minority stakes and only get a fairly small profit per barrel — no actual equity ownership of oil in the ground.
I would go further to say that fears over the potential invocation of this Carter Doctrine are what have given pause to the Chinese and others as far as implementing development of oil concessions in Iran.
Flame away.
Bttt