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To: muawiyah
Do you realize you are arguing the case FOR the skewing crowd?

Who's the "skewing" crowd? Do you mean the "unskewed polls" guy and the fools that believed in that garbage? That idiot, who's name was Dean Chambers by the way, thought he could take existing scientific polling and undo the methodology and apply his own. He claimed, like you, that the models polling firms were using were wrong because of the way they weighted for demographics. You are essentially saying the same thing as this goofball was, and you're both dead wrong. At least he has admitted it and seems to have shut down his site.

I can see we won't get very far with this discussion.

Yes because you are trying to avoid defending your statement, because you know it was wrong.

Again, here is what you said:

I've been explaining since last summer, the use of polling to determine public opinion has collapsed to utter nonsense.

That's what you stated. And you are dead wrong, and the 2012 election polling proves that. Anyone that used the polling leading into the November election, particularly the state polls, knew that Obama was going to win. Those who did an aggregate of that polling often got all 50 states right (such as Nate Silver). Those who believed, like you, that the polls were not able to predict public opinion were completely wrong. You are completely wrong about this. Just admit and move on like Morris, Barone, etc, have.

71 posted on 03/25/2013 2:26:24 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
What do you mean by 'model' ~ ? Please define that for me. That term showed up in the discussion of 'skewing' and didn't make any more sense then that it does now. Statistically valid samples are organized in a number of ways ~ but the whole scheme depends on random sampling.

The 'skewering' crowd believed in 'models' that would enable a pollster to keep sampling until he had the number of responses he wanted ~ and then, presumably, they'd show their customer the responses they received (albeit only those that gave the result they preferred to push).

72 posted on 03/25/2013 3:50:26 PM PDT by muawiyah
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