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To: muawiyah
So far you have yet to disprove any theory.

Your theory didn't even hold up to the last election. The very Pew article you are using as evidence, disputes your own conclusion. In case you skipped over it in my last post, here is Pew blowing your theory to pieces:

A new study by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that, despite declining response rates, telephone surveys that include landlines and cell phones and are weighted to match the demographic composition of the population continue to provide accurate data on most political, social and economic measures. This comports with the consistent record of accuracy achieved by major polls when it comes to estimating election outcomes, among other things.

That's Pew discussing the fact that low response rates have NOT prevented polling from being reliable and accurate. Exactly the opposite of what you claim.

Let's go back to your statement which I originally took issue with:

As I've been explaining since last summer, the use of polling to determine public opinion has collapsed to utter nonsense.

You are completely, utterly wrong. The polling for the 2012 election alone shreds your theory that polling can not determine public opinion. Analysts and statisticians that relied on polling, particularly the state level polling, to make their predictions were deadly accurate - in some cases people like Nate Silver got all 50 states right. Analysts like Dick Morris, Michael Barone, etc, who rejected polling results got it wrong - and later had to admit the polls were right. If they can admit it, surely you can see how you might want to reconsider your silly theory.

All of them admit to ADJUSTING their data so the results matched aggregate trendlines.

They use modeling based on things like demographics - and it works very well. That was the heart of the dispute with people who refused to believe the polls last time around. Many conservatives and Republican analysts refused to believe the "D+" numbers the polls were using. In the end, the electorate was D+6 - which was a pretty good average of what most polls were indicating.

You now want us to believe that the Washington Post doesn't misinterpret and misuse polling. Their trick is simple ~ have 20 polls taken at the same kind then release the one that makes Republicans or straight people or non-criminals look the worst.

You're just spewing conspiracy theories and laughable nonsense. You didn't even know the Washington Post commissions an outside pollster. You obviously hadn't read the entire Pew article you were trying to use as evidence to back up your theory, since Pew completely disputes your conclusion. You clearly have no idea how the polling industry works, the science and methodology behind it, etc. You're making a fool of yourself and trying to change the subject.

Professionally done polls with neutral questions that ask about approval ratings, generic ballot preference, etc, are usually pretty accurate - even with small sample sizes. These polls are even more useful when a statistician takes an aggregate of them (which smooths out any outliers on either side). Your statement that the use of polling to determine public opinion has collapsed is more than wrong, it's downright goofy.

67 posted on 03/25/2013 11:03:03 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
"and are weighted" ~ what I said ~ they filter the data input AND they adust it to meet separately conceived ideas about where it ought to be ~ and that's no longer a RANDOM SAMPLE SURVEY.

You need to learn to read more carefully and with understanding.

68 posted on 03/25/2013 11:20:10 AM PDT by muawiyah
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