Color me skeptical.
If you count the number of known civilizations that have been identified in our Milky Way you find there is only one and it's ours. I would like to know how you extrapolate one point to one in a million.
They are guessing. It could be one billion just as easy. Or one in a thousand. Or just one.
Or, based on the singular data point you cited, zero.
You could also have civilizations that, once sufficiently intelligent, lose their physical form and self evolve to a “higher” level (e.g., pure energy). That is what Arthur C. Clarke prophesied in some of his books, like “Childhood's End” and “2001 - A Space Odyssey”.
I’m sure glad humans picked this one. :-)