1: I have reasonable, not religious respect for Jim Rogers.
2: I agree that the market appears nearly fully-valued.
3: But to sell stocks means that a preference is being expressed for cash over risk, or cash over dividend paying items, or, if a waterfall event occurs, the cutoff of losses as expressed by big fat red numbers on a screen.
So the question is, and fundamentally I am modestly bearish but I see what is going on, I think, what are the probabilities of the items in #3?
Frankly, I do not think they are large. The investors who have had the stomach lining to hold on through the volatility events of the past few years have been richly rewarded. The panickers have been left behind. The shorts have been demolished.
If you want to say that onshore oil production will stanch the flow of dollars ex-US and in some way strengthen the USD, yes, it is true that a stonger dollar has been associated with weaker stocks. That correlation now appears to be weakening. Additionally, we see considerable funds inflow from foreign sources.
So if you want to say “stocks are too dear, they are too high”...I believe that to complete such a bear case thesis, one also has to express something or other about about why there would be a sudden preference for cash. And this I do not see. Could there be a single-digit correction in our immediate future? Absolutely. I think it would be bought back up such if you weren’t watching, you would scarcely see it.
Opinion only, of course.
Very good and all investments can only be analyzed versus an alternative. So you have to have a rational reason to avoid risk and that’s a higher risk adjusted return.