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Really it didn't make a difference. Those 47% never voted for Bush either back in '00 and '04. Bush had to run the table on the remaining 53% and he barely squeaked out.

I don't know about Romney's numbers. More relevant: McCain carried 45% of votes in 2008. Romney had to get to 50%+. He didn't do it and the "47% comment" hurt.

It's not so much that people dependent on government didn't vote for Romney (or Bush or McCain). It's that the comment made Romney look bad with swing voters.

That's the way it is with a lot of these "gaffes": the people the "gaffe" refers to may not vote for you in any case, but the comment hurts you with other voters who might have been yours to pick up.

If the voters that showed up to support Obama in '08 and '12 shows up again for '16, it's basically game over. The only way that the Republican candidate has a shot at winning the White House is if those voters stayed at home as they did during midterm elections in '10.

But that's tough for that scenario to occur in '16, especially when it's not too difficult for mainstream media to stir the voters into a frenzy and pull the level for the Democratic candidate once again.