Posted on 02/28/2013 5:09:19 PM PST by blam
WALTER ZIMMERMAN: Every Indicator I Follow Shows The Market Is Going To Tank, A New Financial Crisis
OH NO!! The dreaded triple top!
“The private sector’s doing fine.”
he could be right. 2 comments I have are -
1. “all time highs”? OK but the market has really just recovered to where it was in 2008
2. where does one move the money into? cash? gold? It seems there is risk in doing either of those things as well
So, with 401k and 403b mutual fund investments, where does one move the money?
I’m not comfortable with bonds any more and money market funds will not be immune to a 50% drop.
Does Fidelity have a cash position with tax-sheltered funds?
Convert some of your cash to another currency.
If this guy got the 2008 crash spot on, then why does he still have to hawk his views on the internet? Shouldn’t he be rich enough not to have to convince retail punters to sell?
Congratulations! This is the 1,000th article in the past four years that called for a crash. Stop already! We’ve gotten to the ‘broken clock being right 2 times a day’ phase on crash calls.
And yes, I am a money manager. This market will not crash because of technical price patterns. It would take a huge, EXTERNAL reason, like Iran nuking Tel Aviv or something similar.
You don’t get crashes when the public is so skeptical of equities, you get them when sentiment is extraordinarily high.
Where you put your 401k and 403b money, depends on which funds your employer has made available to you under your plan.
I have gradually moved out of bonds the past couple years. With interest rates near zero, there is only one way for them to go. The Fed can’t keep the interest rate artificially low forever, and when interest rates begin rising again, the share prices of your bond funds will tank.
You can move more money into cash (your plan’s “money market” fund), although under the current interest-rate environment, you lose there also with the dollar devaluation and inflation.
You might have an “inflation-linked” bond fund, but these are susceptible also to the inevitable rise in interest rates. Moreover, the inflation rate is defined by the BLS CPI, which is bogus, as it does not include energy and food prices (”Too volatile.” LOL).
Your plan should have some international funds. You could diversify and hedge against a dollar collapse by investing in those, although many foreign central banks are printing money like crazy also.
If your plan has a real-estate fund, you can hedge against inflation that way. These have been doing well the past couple years, but much of the recovery in real estate prices has been due to the Fed’s easy-credit policies (read: another RE bubble brewing).
If you’re lucky, your plan will have a precious metals fund or something like that, although I’ve yet to see a 401k/403b plan with that option.
All this to say, I have no idea what you should do with your 401k/403b money. The best advice is probably to diversify as best as your plan allows.
Good luck! Hopefully when SHTF, you won’t lose too much of your principal, so that when Obama confiscates our retirement funds, you’ll have a nice little nest egg there just waiting for him to gobble up.
i thought there was an entire daily thread now at FR for all this financial speculation stuff.
No one can possibly predict when, because Bernanke is doing things never done before.
This much we can all agree is true: the longer he continues before the crash, the more devastating the crash will be.
Past happenings don't guarantee future outcomes. That said, Fidelity and and Vanguard money market funds didn't break the buck during the last stock market melt down..
Look at bond funds.
Mine are doing better than the market.
Watch CALPERS. The Democrats won’t let that get hurt.
Back in December I made changes to my 401K and am currently weighted 70% money market and 30% stock funds. I’m second guessing myself a little, but my gut tells me the market is really overvalued right now. It’s been torture watching the market climb while sitting on the sideline.
I’m the furthest thing from an expert, but I went with my gut during the last crash and did the same thing when the DOW was around 12000; jumped back in when it came back to around 8000 and did really well. I have no idea what to do right now.
Interesting, I’ve done the same pros and cons that you ran through. Dissappointingly, the Fidelity precious metals options I have did not track precious metals very well. Otherwise, I would have doubled my money.
I have been most heavily weighted in international stocks, and they have done OK, but I expect global melt down when the DOW collapses (and I think it will on the timeline given in the article).
I’m thinking that money market funds will preserve the most principle for me, to spin around and reinvest.
Outside of tax deferred, I’ve been accumulating a very large cash position. That money will go in after we hit hit bottom, do the dead cat bounce, and bottom out again. Assuming I haven’t used it to purchase a defensible chicken coup in Idaho.
Thirdly, I started purchasing valuable personal items of great utility and increasing value in 2008 and steadily increased my holdings. I could sell now for a 100% profit, but I believe I might need the utility, somewhere in Idaho, more than the cash.
****** “Convert some of your cash to another currency.” ******
Since 22 LR is no longer an available currency do you have any recommendations?
TT
So it has been 13 years and no higher???? It is simple we either go back down or go higher.....just put stops on everything... it is the 2000 points down in one day that will kill everything
This post alone will give us another 200+ on the DOW tomorrow.
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