Posted on 02/08/2013 11:59:35 AM PST by blam
Two Chilling Developments Suggest Asia May Be One Step Away From War
Robert Johnson
February 8, 2013, 9:38 AM
China and Japan, along with North and South Korean troops at the DMZ, appear one step away from armed combat and tensions don't look likely to ease any time soon.
New developments within both regions illustrate how close to open combat the four countries are, and how quickly one incident could expand to war among very powerful nations.
Tokyo reported two January events where Chinese naval vessels targeted its East China Sea forces with fire-control radar. This specific type of radar is used almost exclusively to assist guided weapons systems in their flight toward a target. It's an unmistakable action that can be the first step to open combat, and was taken seriously enough by the Japanese captain to prompt a combat alert aboard his vessel.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to the allegations by saying it hadn't heard about the engagements until news of the events appeared on international news. It has since said that the event didn't happen and is a total Japanese fabrication. Whether it's true or not China is using Japan's claim to prove Tokyo is preparing for war.
If Chinese ships did engage their fire-control radar, it may be in Beijing's interest to deny it because either it approved the maneuver, or the ship's captains acted independently. Both scenarios offer a long list of concerns that would be easiest for China to address if avoided entirely.
Japan continues pressing the issue and yesterday announced that the use of fire-control radar against its ships is an "act of force" and a direct UN charter violation."
U.S. Secretary of Defense Panetta is pleading for caution and says, "the situation could ultimately get out of hand."
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Panetta is such a wuss. I’m glad he’s gone as of today. The best response to China’s ridiculous claims in the Senkaku Islands is to send in a carrier battle group to do some ‘exercises’ with a Japanese allies. Instead the Obama minions are acting as if they’re on China’s side in this.
Maybe they’re not acting.
So will we have “business as usual’ if there is a shooting war between China, North Korea vs Japan South Korea? Or does Free Trade trump all? I’ll bet the Free Republic Free Traders would deal with the Chinese similar to the deals made with the Nazi’s as depicted in book catch 22.
So will we have “business as usual’ if there is a shooting war between China, North Korea vs Japan South Korea? Or does Free Trade trump all? I’ll bet the Free Republic Free Traders would deal with the Chinese similar to the deals made with the Nazi’s as depicted in book catch 22.
There is a clear crisis trajectory, and I think eventually a limited Japan/China naval engagement is in the cards:
The Senkaku Islands feature a good deal of oil, and if China takes them, they can also exert control over the 200 km economic exclusion zone that that would bring.
The long-term Chinese objective is to eject the US Navy from the South and East China Seas. If China is 2b happy, then our guys will be tooling and zooming around seas a bit west of Guam, and then no more.
China wants to control the sea lanes that feature most of her trade, and that’s why Hainan Island features a submarine base carved into the island rock, with long-term capacity to harbor 20 nuclear submarines (which would guard the approaches to the Straits of Malacca).
Yes, I’d say that in a year or so there’s going to be some shooting.
This market is so overbought on almost every time frame, something like this would be the trigger to begin a corretion in earnest.
It can’t come soon enough (the correction, not the shooting in Asia).
It’s simple.
War happens in Asia = the whole economy collapses here. Since we get all of our stuff from Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea and China, we are sunk when the shooting starts.
Complete opposite from WW1 and WW2 when we made everything we needed and it was the combatants that needed to buy from us. We got rich off of their slug match.
The post Pax Americana “peace dividend” power vacuum reaps its bitter harvest.
Under a Republican administration, this would be called “uncertainty” and “instability in the world” and the market would drop 300-400 points and the Republicans would be blamed. Meanwhile, society is going nuts, the Chinese are itching to wipe Japan, the Middle East is still boiling and the stock market is going up and we are seeing an “improving economy” and basically “good times” according to the media.
The entirety of Asia is not worth the blood of a single American.
However small the engagement, we can be sure Obama will find some reason to prominently chicken-out.
If he does that, you know WHAT WILL happen, hmmm...?
We will see a very huge and serious arms-race kick-off in Asia —ALL former APAC allies of the USA will see that lo and behold they are really ON THEIR OWN, in spite of the fancy US rhetoric.
Asia is a place where manners are important, and therefore A LOT of words are just gestures —you watch actions.
A lot of Asia’s leaders were watching when DC didn’t lift a FINGER as their guys were killed in Bengazi, so how could they expect that DC fan of MAO TSE TUNG would help THEM, all the way across the Pacific against a power he said the USA should emulate...???
I’d say right now SK and Japan missile projects are on over-drive, and after a little shooting starts that will only increase.
And we are still making some money. Well, at least our corporations are. A lot of factories in China were built with western knowhow and our experts. If a war started, the Chinese would lose access to a lot of that knowhow and spare parts. The problems go both ways if a war happened. Back in the 1930's, Japan was getting a lot of expertise and assistance from western nations. Mitsubishi planes (think Zeroes) had French experts in Japan working with the Japanese. That stopped with war, but the Japanese carried on okay. In a war, the Chinese will struggle and may falter.
1. War between China and Japan would last a day, assuming no US involvment. The JSDF is not the VPA. A study in the 80s said that the Russian army could take the Japanese Northern Islands in an afternoon.
2. China is owed money by the US.
3. Taiwan is not interested in war with China. If China tried to take the Island, the Island would be destroyed before the PLA would be able to take it.
4. War in the Middle East is almost a mathematical certainty, if not around the corner - The Romans named the third month March for a reason.
5. Politically, I do not think Kim Jeong Eun could start a war.
bookmark
um.. war is usually good for the markets.
Just the opposite - “the broken window” parable, you have to pay for war and we have no money.
Too bad we don’t have a Presdient at the moment.
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