Aside from the 1st shot, which I think was a BAD first move, the rest is conjecture. Good theory and debate fodder; but I believe the South was more worried about getting the Fed. gov’ts boot off its neck more than were they were to setup after the war.
I once was a Jeff Davis fan. Now I have the same opinion about him that Winfield Scott did and Joe Johnston did. If the Confederacy had had a different President, they might have won.