“I think the military will break 50/50, same with LEO.”
I think you are optimistic, especially with regard to LEOs. It would be roughly comparable though, and there would be a qualitative difference. I see more line people going with the Constitution, and more pogues going with the State. If we fracture in this way, it could be as bad as the Spanish Civil War on a continental scale. A best case would be dissolution similar to that of the Soviet Union, with a generally apathetic and disengaged military and LEO. Unlikely though. The Soviets were jaded with bloodletting. We are just getting into it. Both sides.
God help us.
It will break along red states/blue states lines.