More Massive Winters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere

Beyond Landscheidt ^ | 31JUL2012 | Geoff Sharp

[Jack Hydrazine]

(This was published back in July of last year.)

The coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere looks to be shaping up for another massive event perhaps bigger than what we experienced in 2011/2012. The last winter coincided with the highest level of EUV and FUV since the beginning of SC24 which although low by normal standards the current UV level is trending quite a bit lower. In fact the current level is not far above the SC22/23 minimum. At present the EUV levels are less than half of the values recorded during the peak of SC23.



There is strong evidence that low EUV and FUV are major players in determining the jet stream position and strength along with major changes to ozone quantities at different levels of the atmosphere. UV also has an influence on the NH polar vortex which when the conditions are right favoring a negative AO over the winter months. When both of these options come together the greatest effect is felt in the Northern Hemisphere. During the summer in the NH and the winter at present in the SH the mainstream media are picking up the relevance of the jet stream patterns that are occurring. This is a shift from the previous year of not only of the knowledge gained but also of the increased activity of the jet stream through 2012. If this pattern continues into 2013 we should witness some big extremes in weather with blocking highs and masses of cold air feeding from the poles.

Last season was mixed with most of the USA getting off with a warm winter, but other parts of Europe, Asia and Alaska experienced the massive event which was named the "Great Winter Freeze of 2012". The position of the jet stream was the culprit of the mixed weather which mainly saw a positive AO, but this season has the chance of being different. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere which last season mostly favored the formation of a positive AO. When the QBO is in easterly mode the planetary waves that disrupt the NH polar vortex are more likely to occur which tends to produce a negative AO. A negative AO in the past few winters has positioned the jet stream so that the USA and western Europe feel the worst of the Arctic cold air movement and blocking highs that perpetuate this event. The current and expected position of the QBO is looking to favor a negative AO this season. The white area is the easterly flow.



If the UV levels are still low by December which is the current trend the liklyhood of advanced jet stream formation and a negative AO are highly possible and most likely to occur. The ENSO position will also play a role but more on a local scale. Some of the coldest temperatures recorded in the UK occurred in Dec 2010 when we were in El Nino territory. All the models that are produced by the meteorology groups are pointing towards a El Nino forming this winter in the NH. I am not so sure the models have the all required data to predict accurately as we are in a different para-dime with low solar output and a neg PDO. Most that ascribe to AGW ignore the effects of solar and ocean influences on climate and prefer to claim everything is man made, the models suffer the same fate in my opinion.

The ocean temp anomaly diagram at the opening of this article shows a neg PDO position which has the customary hot spot in the central northern pacific. Last year the prevailing winds that come with a neg PDO moved some of this warm water towards New Guinea which in turn fueled the Walker circulation pump that drives the trade winds which in turn builds up water against Asia and influences the level of the Thermocline. This pushes cold water from below that surfaces off the South American coast and flows towards Asia with assistance of the trade winds. It is still too early to call but July has seen a change with the SOI going positive and the trade winds are maintained. There is still a high chance of a La Nina forming which would make three in a row.

Even if a weak El Nino forms and the QBO has no effect on the AO position the jet streams will still play a major role in forming massive winter events, that should be with us for the next 20 years at least if my solar predictions continue to play out. So far everything is right on track.

[Lancey Howard]

More Massive Winters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere

Heh, I read the thread title:
"More Maxine Waters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere", and I got scared.

(Whew) Glad it was nothing to worry about.

[Bratch]

[jasonandtheb]

The theory that the ice ages are caused by the variation of the ellipse the earth makes as it goes around the sun due to the gravitational attraction of the larger planets is flawed:
1) It is 20,000 years out of phase
2) Their periods are more than 5,000 years different
3) The 100,000 year ice age cycle has been occurring for only 1.5 million years ... the orbital eccentricity has been around for billions of years.
4) For the first 1 million years of the 100,000 year ice age cycle, the ice ages grew progressively colder, but they have been very similar for the last 500,000 years (the last five cycles).
5) The change in solar energy reaching the earth due to the orbital eccentricity is minimal ... it would take tremendous positive feedback for it to have any affect.

[jasonandtheb]

There are several blogs that have been addressing the scientific and ethical flaws of “global warming”. The one I look at the most is “www.climateaudit.org”. I do believe some in the scientific community are starting to have doubts.

Almost all "official" temperature predictions made over the last 15 years or so have been wrong, as they have predicted too much warming. Each successive prediction shows less warming then the previous, with the most recent including the affect of oceans (but they still don't include the affect of clouds). The weird thing is that they are still able to sell their theory as reality, even though their official predictions have never been very accurate when compared with the actual change in temperature (which, BTW, also has issues).

Some feel the warming we are currently experiencing is simply the earth coming out of the little ice age. One thousand years ago, before it began, there is evidence the earth was actually as warm (or perhaps warmer) than it is today. In fact, the retreating ice has exposed artifacts frozen in the ice from the middle age time period (meaning the ice was not there one thousand years ago). Before the little ice age, Greenland had a much larger population, which reduced in size as it got colder. The cause of the little ice age has not be determined ... but note there was a fifty year period within it where there were no observable sun spots (an active sun has more sun spots than a less active sun).

[Eye of Unk]

Alaska is way warmer than usual, normally I am about 10F minus to 10F above, but its over 35F during the day, and not a lot of snow, but we broke snowfall records last year and thats unusual because where I live we actually don’t get a lot of snow being semi-arid here around Wasilla.

[epluribus_2]

Not EUV or FUV don’t you know its cause of your SUV? And your other republican sins. We must make sacrifice to Gaia. Bring forth the unblemished maidens and offer orangutans and breakfast cereals... this is how they will see us in the future.

[DH]

There is a chill over the land and it comes from Washington D.C..

[norwaypinesavage]

"If it were possible for the left to leverage this to promote their agenda, you would be hearing much more about it ..."

The left always leverages events to its agenda. They spun from global cooling to global warming in the 80's without even blinking. Jame Hansen, NASA's high priest of global warming even did a college paper on the horrors of.....global cooling. The source will always be the same: mankind, and the solution will always be the same: bigger government.

[The Great RJ]

The HIGH temperature the other day was -2...living on the northern plains isn’t for wussies.

[ops33]

“This just in - Winters are cold, Summers are hot. Film at 11:00”

[mollynme]

Apparently the Rocky Mountains are getting a pass on northern hemisphere weather. Typical winter last year, typical winter this year.

Well here in the foothills of the Rockies, my gas bill tells me that the average daily temp for last month was 7 degrees lower than last winter.

[goodnesswins]

Well...that’s a bummer, too....means our little decrepit beach house will no longer be on “Beach” street!!!

[jayrunner]

WE are approaching another ice age, due to the ellipical orbit of earth’s journey around the sun.

Since the orbit is egg-shaped, the earth is furthest from the sun twice, which caused the Little Ice Age.

A real geologist explains in his webpage, Iceagenow. So button up your overcoats, baby it’s cold out here!

[CottShop]

[[There are several blogs that have been addressing the scientific and ethical flaws of “global warming”.]]

Yes I know, I used to follow soem of htem ajor blogs and sites o nthe issue- before I figured out htat the left does not give a damn abotu truth and facts and actual evidence- and before I figured otu htat DESPITE ANY evidence agaisnt the idea of ‘man-caused global warming’ the left WAS GOING TO make us all pay htrough our noses for soemthign we did NOT create or cause

[[Almost all “official” temperature predictions made over the last 15 years or so have been wrong, as they have predicted too much warming.]]

A year or more ago I discovered a site trhat discovere that the temprature statiosn the scientists used were placed in artificially wamr spots like parking lots, next to massive airconditioner motors, rooftops that soak up heat etc- and htese stations were palced there intentionally- that is where the IPCC’s tempreature information was coming from- That shoudl tell you everythign you need to know abotu that deceitful organization

There is deniantely a direct correlation between sun spots and warmign and cooling periods, there is also ample and verifiable evidence that CO2 levels rise NOT BECAUSE OF, but AFTER temperatures rise- CO2 level rises and drops are NOT the cause of warmign or cooling- it is a result of temperature changes- when it warms out, CO2 gets released from ice where it gets trapped when it cools out- the scientists KNOW this yet they REFUSE to tell the public this very important FACT- it takes a 1000 or so years AFTER warmign begins for the CO2 to begin releasign from the ice it’s trapped in-

But again- I gave up ev en tryign to argue with the idiots on the left who siompyl ingored the evidence and kept making the same false claims time after time after time- it’s liek arguing with kids- they siomply will not l isten no matter how many cold hard facts you throw at them

[TigersEye]

The east slope foothills are basically where I am too. I remember many colder winters and many warmer ones. Last night the low was 40 and today the high is 50. Not bad for January.

[Mears]

“I’m making a nice hot chicken soup”

---

Show off-——I’m having Progresso and grilled cheese.Too lazy to make soup anymore.

Stay warm and cuddle.

.

[dearolddad]

This just in - Winters are cold, Summers are hot. Film at 11:00

I grew up in southern CA. Most summers were warm and most winters were a little cooler. I now live in NC and the weather patterns seem to be pretty much the same. Except for the humidity.

[Jack Hydrazine]

Ever heard of the Milankovitch cycles?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

[Jack Hydrazine]

I did read that Russia was getting -50F temps not long ago.

[Eye of Unk]

And its 40F in Wasilla today, maybe a bit warmer in some areas, not a heatwave or a chinook but better than -50 temps.

Coldest I ever saw personally in Alaska was -47F in 2004.