Assuming the average of the polls is correct:
PLAN A - Likud + Jewish Home + Shas + UTJ
PLAN B - Yesh Atid + Labor + Meretz + Hatnua + Shas + UTJ
Shas has been willing, in the past, to join left-wing governments to preserve the exemption of the orthodox from military service. We call this, “king-maker.”
Lapid, who made ending the exemption a priority in his campaign, might be thinking that if he is willing to concede on the exemption, he might be the next prime minister.
Netanyahu certainly can figure this out (he is a master at this game). Therefore, he approaches Shas and UTJ, each of which would be more comfortable in a right-wing government, and offers the concession himself.
At the same time, he approaches Lapid and asks him to join his government based on concessions other than the exemption; or - if Shas and UTJ hesitate or ever withdraw from the ruling coalition - with a promise to then review the exemption. This way Netanyahu has a chance to form a robust and balanced ruling coalition.
Just as likely to be Likud-Bet, Labor, Livni, Shas & UTJ.