Posted on 01/22/2013 11:31:53 AM PST by Dave346
Turnout is highest since 1999. Netanyahu is favored to win his 3rd term as PM.
Kadima is still barely hanging on to their 2 seats. If they fall below the 2% threshold then their votes will be distributed equally among the parties.
With 90 percent of votes counted:
Likud-Beytenu 31
Yesh Atid 19
Labor 15
Shas 12
Jewish Home 11
United Torah Judaism 7
Hatnua 6
Meretz 6
Hadash 4
Ra’am Ta’al 4
Balad 3
Kadima 2
Kadima could well be good as gone.
Centrist parties in Israel have rarely lasted more than one election. Kadima was largely the personal vehicle for Sharon and opportunitists in the Likud who jumped ship with him and it failed to survive his demise on the political scene.
Yesh Atid is already overvalued stock. Yair Lapid is a rookie politician. By the time the next elections roll around, his party may too go the way of Kadima, as its a novelty vehicle built around a famous celebrity.
Kadima’s seats came at the expense of Labor and Hatnua. If it ails to make the 2% threshold, those votes get redistributed and Likud would be the beneficiary.
Labor in particular, is back to where it was in 2009 with 13 seats but this time it won’t play the all-important “kingmaker” role. That’s what happens when you come in third place.
Officially Kadima is at 2.11% with 90% of votes counted.....
With 96% of the votes counted, they’re saying it’s 60-60 again.
If it stays 60-60 it will be difficult for Netanyahu to form a government. If he can’t than a re-vote will have to be taken......
I doubt Netanyahu ever intended to govern from the right. He’ll stay with Labor, Livni and religious parties, leaving Habayit Hayehudi on the sidelines and Yesh Atid the main opposition. I think this is exactly what Bibi wanted.
It appears that Kadima has met the threshold and their 2 seats are safe now.
The 2 parties that came closest to the 2% mark but fell short were both on the right.
99% of votes counted and it’s tied 60-60.
Netanyahu will need to form a coalition including one of the parties on the left to prevent a re-vote.
With 96 percent of the vote, the right-wing bloc is at 60 seats. We will see how the remaining 4 percent come in. We’ll know this in one day.
If Kadima holds on to its 2 percent, their two MKs should be amenable joining the right-wing block. #1 on the Kadima list is a former member of Likud, and #2 is a former member of Yisrael Beiteinu. Having said this, Kadima has always seemed to attract people with an exaggerated opinion of themselves. They are simply difficult to deal with. And, my goodness, two votes! Hardly any protection from disgruntled back-benchers taking down the government.
If Kadima falls below 2 percent, I am thinking Likud as the largest party will pick up 1 seat and Shas, which lost a seat to an Arab party in the most recent adjustment, will pick up the other. I am sure this is Bibi’s preferred scenario.
After the voting was concluded, Netanyahu indicated a desire to work with Lapid. Netanyahu also said re-visiting the exception from military service will be a key part of his next government. Likud + Jewish Home + Yesh Atid would be a majority, and Shas and UJT could not bargain with Labor for a better deal. Shas and UJT would therefore join with Netanyahu even though the exemption will be re-visited, to keep from getting a worse deal.
The result if Netanyahu and Lapid work this out, would be a robust majority. If Netanyahu and Lapid don’t work this out, we’re talking about such possibilities as a two-vote majority, dealing with Kadima, and having to cave-in the Shas and UTJ on the exemption issue. What a headache!
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