I don't think it's that, as much as it is that an unsuccessful run spells the end of a Republican's career.
Career?? I have thought this out so please consider it.
Here's the thing, he was against plan B, voted against the final resulting worse (but better than nothing) tax bill, and he voted against Bohner.
Obviously his bright Red district rewards him for these purely symbolical acts that do not in any way endear himself with the GOP House leadership. So he has a 100% safe seat and doesnt care what they think.
Him not running made sure that Bohner won.
But more-so he in no way wants Bohners job himself to put up with the same crap.
Lou's job now is to please voters of a small red district.
As Speaker he has to worry about all in his his caucus not just the (about 30%) ones in 100% safe districts like Lou.
I appreciate your sincere question. I was a critic of Bohner long before most 2008 but it is obvious that O is the only alternative to him now.