Posted on 12/31/2012 6:47:37 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
In an article published on September 20, I noted that analysts seemed to be putting quite a bit of faith in the U.S. consumer's willingness and ability to boost the economy in the fourth quarter. Specifically, consensus estimates showed revenue growth for consumer discretionary names outpacing topline growth for the S&P 500 as a whole by more than 3 to 1. I suggested that underpinning the outlook for consumer discretionary names were unrealistic expectations regarding the efficacy of QE3 at producing the so-called "wealth effect."
Ultimately, I made the following prediction of my own:
...the post-QE rally has historically lasted around six weeks. This would put the rally ending just around the election and just in time for both the holiday season to disappoint in terms of the consumer coming to the rescue and the fiscal cliff debate to take center stage.
Without putting too fine a point on it, it would certainly appear that I was mostly correct. The market sold-off sharply post election, the fiscal cliff has indeed taken center stage, causing quite an unpleasant commotion, and now it appears the holiday shopping season was a spectacular disappointment.
(Excerpt) Read more at m.seekingalpha.com ...
“... that is pretty much the case”.
I am so jealous!! I know Talbot’s, for example, has really high quality/conservative outfits. I forget exactly who but another Freepers wife still has Talbot’s blazers/skirts from over twenty years ago. They still look brand new. (sigh again... why do all those teeny little gals get the breaks?! LOL!)
They certainly are. My wife has been shopping at thrift stores for many years and the expensive clothes she brings home are amazing. She wears them for a while and if she becomes tired of them or they become too big she donates them back and finds something new. I have a heck of a time getting her to buy new some of the things she can’t find like pants. She grew up dirt poor with one or two outfits at any one time. She appreciates saving and always has through the 40 years we’ve been married.
“Best bet is that retailers believed government forecasts for more holiday spending, increased consumer confidence and an expanding economy instead of believing their own lying eyes. Judging fromt he parking lots and store activity over the past week, I’ll bet Christmas for a lot of folks happened after December 25th.”
As an increasing number of people give gift cards, I’m suremuch of that shopping is happening after Christmas Day. I know I’ve used them in the past to buy as much of my normal staples (to help pay down credit card debt) - light bulbs from Home Depot, groceries from Target, etc. The AmEx cards are great because you can use them in a supermarket.
The days of Christmas with adults buying adult toys are over for most Americans; welcome to the “new normal”.
LOL! Out here in Flyoverville, Sandy wasn't a factor in any way, shape or form. As for CT, it seems to have spurred already strong firearms sales (I've been around the block a time or two and I've never seen so many people walk into the LGS and just buy for the sake of buying something)... now if that meant that people spent their money on firearms, ammunition and magazines instead of other items, then retailers can put the blame on Obama and the Dems.
(Where it belongs for a number of reasons which may or may not be related.)
The Fast & Furious operation combined with running arms to Muslim Brotherhood affiliates probably puts Barack Hussein Obama at the top of the "President responsible for supplying arms to civilians" category dollar wise, and he has certainly been responsible for booming sales in the US. He generally takes credit for anything and everything, but my guess is that being "Arms Salesman of the Year" for four straight isn't going to get much ink.
Back to the broader topic, niteowl77 and I noticed back in early December that people were not out and about buying as in past years, nor were they dining out like last year. I don't know what others' reasons may be, but we hit a psychological wall of sorts a few years back, finally reacting to the realization that much of what was good about Christmas (same for Halloween and other holidays) had long been co-opted by various conglomerations of asses. Call it fed-up, or burned-out or whatever, but Christmas here is no longer an orgy of material goods that we may or may not need, and which we may or may not really be able to afford. We (and our extended family as well) have continued to cut back, and this year marked the first time in at least 55 years that my parents did not buy Christmas gifts for their kids or grandkids.
Mr. niteowl77
I had to pick something up at Wal Mart on Black Friday, in the P.M....wasn’t crowded in the least bit. Then I turned on the radio and heard about the great day retailers were having. A very Soviet experience.
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Same here ,, black friday ,, bopped into WMT for a grocery item ... the lot was a bit more than half full ,, like a normal Saturday, no delay at checkout and only half of the checkouts were open.. only buying a very few toy items ,, 90% just needs.. never saw what I would call a large crowd.. one mall I visit has had over a 20% vacancy rate for at least the past 2 seasons,, they hid it by moving existing stores in seldom visited side corridors to the main “avenue” and vacating the side corridors,, now the main “avenue” has even more empty positions , camoflaged by window displays for the surviving stores and some of the new stores are really low rent things that normally would never be in a mall... a health club took at least 6-8 of the empty spaces ... just the fact they could consolidate enough space for it tells you a lot,, then you have the personal services type places that are started on a shoestring..
The media carrying 0boober’s water again. We haven’t come out of the ‘08 recession, and now that things were ever so slightly improving we get slammed with a host of new 0bamacare taxes and payroll tax hikes that kick in whether or not we swan dive off the fiscal cliff. But, the “wise” voting public chose this sham regime for another 4 years.
I thought that was telling, the bluest part of the people's republic of CT, not 10 minutes away from where the Dear Reader spoke in Newtown and they can't keep ammo on the shelves.
So there's one sector of the economy having a banner holiday season.
Since the election, the only thing I have any desire to buy is the stuff my child needs for school etc. That, and the occasional bottle of drinkable wine (domestic or from a country I can stomach politically - definitely not French). I’m sure I’m not alone.
I know that, that is what I do with my two adult daughters. We wait for a couple of days after Christmas, and then I take them for clothes shopping. Neither lives anywhere near hubby and I, so I don't know what they like or need; so, it is just easier to let them find things for themselves. What my youngest needed this time were new shoes.
And yet we heard that after Black Friday, the whole deal had broken records.....on the plus side. I guess this is another "unexpected" turn of events.
“I don’t know what others’ reasons may be, but we hit a psychological wall of sorts a few years back, finally reacting to the realization that much of what was good about Christmas (same for Halloween and other holidays) had long been co-opted by various conglomerations of asses. Call it fed-up, or burned-out or whatever, but Christmas here is no longer an orgy of material goods that we may or may not need, and which we may or may not really be able to afford.”
This is true of many people I know, too. We also cut back, especially this year. Many don’t have the money and almost all wonder about the future.
I also think retailers killed the goose that laid the golden egg when they switched to Happy Holidays. Nobody goes shopping for the Winter Solstice. Now that Christmas is just a reason to buy things on sale, many people wait to shop until January or don’t shop at all, and Christians are turning away from the public display of nothingness.
It’s a great (and practical) idea; what takes place prior to December 25th has become so far removed from “Christmas” it is a mockery.
People should start exchanging gifts on Three Kings Day (January 6th); that would be much easier.
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