Posted on 12/27/2012 8:03:46 PM PST by daniel1212
North Korea now has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the United States, as demonstrated by their successful launch and orbiting of a satellite on Dec. 12. Certain poorly informed pundits among the chattering classes reassure us that North Korea is still years away from being able to miniaturize warheads for missile delivery, and from developing sufficiently accurate missiles to pose a serious nuclear threat to the United States. Philip Yun, director of San Francisco’s Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear disarmament group, reportedly said, “The real threat from the launch was an overreaction that would lead to more defense spending on unnecessary systems. The sky is not falling. We shouldn’t be panicked.”
In fact, North Korea is a mortal nuclear threat to the United States— right now...
North Korea has labored for years and starved its people so it could develop an intercontinental missile capable of reaching the United States. Why? Because they have a special kind of nuclear weapon that could destroy the United States with a single blow.
In summer 2004, a delegation of Russian generals warned the Congressional Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Commission that secrets had leaked to North Korea for a decisive new nuclear weapon — a Super-EMP...
Any nuclear weapon detonated above an altitude of 30 kilometers will generate an electromagnetic pulse that will destroy electronics and could collapse the electric power grid and other critical infrastructures...
A Super-EMP warhead would not weigh much, and could probably be delivered by North Korea’s ICBM. The missile does not have to be accurate, as the EMP field is so large that detonating anywhere over the United States would have catastrophic consequences. The warhead does not even need a re-entry vehicle, as an EMP attack entails detonating the warhead at high-altitude, above the atmosphere.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
I hadn't thought of that until now.
While not technically accurate — the North Korean elites do use electricity and computers, and not all of them are in hardened underground cave facilities, and as KarlinOhio posted at #34, they do have “one light” in Pyongyang — it is certainly a clue to the psychology of why North Koreans might be willing to try something like this.
North Korea's technology is at such a primitive level that it might well survive an EMP attack with minimal problems. Of course, this is only theoretical since any EMP attack on Pyongyang would wreck Seoul and Inchon, so nobody would actually try one. Any effective response to North Korean aggression would have to use more traditional military methods, and that's not easy because the North Korean military is still one of the largest in the world. Raw numbers and tough discipline do count when fighting a land war in one’s own back yard.
6 posted on Thu Dec 27 2012 22:20:09 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) by Gasshog: “Yes, and as soon as they pull that little trick Im sure we have an off-shore submarine or two that will retaliate and blast all the Norks to Kingdom Come. So such a move is not without risk.”
15 posted on Thu Dec 27 2012 23:08:41 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) by Forward the Light Brigade: “OK—They hit the USA and—no one knows how bad such an attack will be or if it will do all the damage they expect. The people in North Korea will know that out Boomer submarines will survive and let loose with all they have on North Korea and turn it into a radioactive waste land—none of their leaders, peasants, slaves, cities, towns, bases will survive the massive blasts. They know this and that will keep any attack from happening. We might toss in any nation that helped them in the boot—Iran, China, etc... We would have nothing to lose.”
I wish I could agree, Light Brigade and Gasshog, but I can't.
As OldExPat posted (#18 on Thu Dec 27 2012 23:17:17 GMT-0600): “Much of NOK is so close to Seoul that the use of nuclear weapons would destroy much of the city. The leadership of NOK knows where to hide and they have massive underground protection from nuclear weapons. They ain’t an easy target.”
The North Korean leadership seem perfectly willing to sacrifice large percentages of their people as long as their own military capability to personally survive is not impaired.
The problems with using nuclear weapons on North Korea include spread of fallout to Seoul and Japan, as well as possible issues with China. Conventional weapons are much more likely in a scenario like that since they can do comparable damage without collateral damage to South Korea and without greatly antagonizing Japan and China.
The problem is that I'm not sure the North Korean leadership cares about the damage done by any conventional attack short of a full-scale invasion. Their military is still one of the largest in the world and I doubt anyone except South Korea and China is realistically able to mount a ground war in North Korea. Because millions of South Korean citizens would die in a ground war as ordinary weapon rounds landed on Seoul and Inchon and longer-range missiles landed on Pusan and Taegu, I am quite sure South Korea wants to avoid an all-out war with North Korea at virtually any cost, and the Chinese would be more likely to issue a direct threat to the North Korean military coupled with a surgical strike to assassinate the top North Korean leadership and replace them with more compliant generals willing to follow Chinese orders.
Bottom line — if North Korea actually did launch an EMP attack I am not convinced the United States would be militarily or politically able to do much of anything about it, and that's even assuming bad actors in the Middle East, Russia and China don't try to step into the power vacuum and start trouble elsewhere.
Good points for sure. You would think though our intelligence guys would know the origin of country of assault. But the USA is becoming the US of S more and more ...see tagline. So who knows.
emping
I see you’ve been reading fictional accounts of the physics of an EMP attack.
I’m a former Nuclear Weapons Specialist.
If NK through some new toy our way, 99.9% of us would be fine, as far as high altitude nuclear blast effect go.
A response to an attack on South Korea/US must be pre-planned and coordinated. Attacking their military will be useless because we won’t and SK won’t do it.
Cruise missiles preprogrammed to strike communist party and government buildings in Pyongyang, including their TV-Radio buildings (even if they just knock down the facades) and those radio jamming towers and palaces of the Kims will be much more effective at destabalizing the regime than any attack on their military.
Once their broadcasts and jamming goes down, South Korea should be prepared to launch their own programming on NorK frequencies for as long a chance as they get.
A nuclear specialist that doesn’t know the difference between through and threw? And we’re supposed to trust you as an authority?
Ya...that’s a big deal....
It doesn’t excuse your ignorance on the bigger picture and the question at hand.
Nice try at face saving though.
I made no claims at all. It’s possible there wouldn’t be a huge amount of damage, but it’s possible there would be too. The data isn’t terribly conclusive on how modern electronics will react.
From your post # 32:
“Well Armed Ants would be the survivors”
That pretty clearly forecasts much more destruction than some undetermined amount of electronics, being affected.
That was not my post.
The first line in the article was pure alarmist bullsh*t. The norkx cannot get a nuke over the US.
Oh!
You’re just the local spell check geek, adding value to discussions everywhere!?!?
49 posted on Fri Dec 28 2012 13:02:49 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) by G Larry: “From your post # 32: ‘Well Armed Ants would be the survivors’ That pretty clearly forecasts much more destruction than some undetermined amount of electronics, being affected.”
I read “ants” as meaning people who work hard and store up for the winter, rather than “grasshopper” people who sit back and enjoy the summer sun and think nothing will go wrong because cold weather won't come.
In other words, the ant and grasshopper allegory, not saying humanity would be wiped out and we would be left with nothing remaining alive except insects.
But I could easily be wrong. Let's ask Monty what he meant.
My apologies to Monty22002, GLarry and GraceG for reading GLarry’s post without realizing Monty22002 has already responded. I was wrong. Figuring out what somebody meant is usually a good idea before hitting the “enter” key.
true but not as fun. :p
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