I shouldn’t have to spell this out (but unfortunately I do) but the drop in Republican votes from 2004 to 2012 isn’t a direct measurement of how many true conservatives “stayed home” - that’s a delusional fantasy.
The OVERWHELMING majority of that drop are people that voted for Bush in 2004, but Obama in 2012.
Secondarily, it’s people that voted for Bush in 2004, and died in the last 8 years.
Tertiary, it’s new voters under the age of 26 added since 2004, the vast majority of whom vote for Obama, of course.
Well of course, if people only over 30 voted, Romney would have won.
Still, and I'll take it back to Ohio, we ran a Gerry Ford candidate and got Gerry Ford results, in Ohio. He couldn't win it either because downstate wouldn't provide him the margin.