I believe you are right, not only about Russia but Europe as well. The fact is that globally we have just scratched the surface of shale gas/oil deposits. The possibility exists that at some point, energy will become such a cheap commodity that it no longer will drive events. Water may take its place.
Who really knows--but this is no time for shortsightedness.
I talked to an executive of a company that manufactures equipment used in fracking. He indicated the future overseas would be huge, not Europe of course because of the green nazis, but thought Russia would be really big.