Jobless claims fall sharply, recover from Sandy (Down to 343,000)

Reuters ^ | 12/13/2012 | Jason Lange;

[SeekAndFind]

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a fourth straight week last week, pointing to steady healing in the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised to show 2,000 more applications than previously reported.

Last week's drop left new claims at their lowest since the week of October 6, and well below the levels just before superstorm Sandy, which slammed into the East Coast in late October and triggered several weeks of volatile claims numbers.

[stevecmd]

All those lay off we see reported..... 10 here 30 there...65 somewhere else...........don’t seem to be adding up to much.

[concerned about politics]

Urbansurvival.....
"What's not in any of this is the interlocking political decisions which can artificially reduce the unemployment rate by simply forgetting about real people without work and counting only those who are still getting unemployment bennies, just as an example. Or, in terms of deflation, failing to come to terms with what a 17.9% inflation rate at the M1 money supply level is really telling us."

[Glenmore]

How many hundred thousand rolled OFF the nemployment rolls because their eligibility expired?

[1rudeboy]

Zero. The number is not calculated in that fashion.

[concerned about politics]

Layoffs since the November election. (Unemployment numbers going down? Really? Seriously?)

The trick is to only count those currently COLLECTING unemployment. If not eligible for unemployment, your unemployment insurance has run out, you're self employed, or an unemployed farm worker, you no longer exist. (You make Oboma look bad.)

[1rudeboy]

If not eligible for unemployment, your unemployment insurance has run out, you're self employed, or an unemployed farm worker, you no longer exist.

False. Please read.

[concerned about politics]

False. Please read.

True. 7.7% only represents those who are collecting unemployment benefits. The U6 (last I checked and the best guess they can make ) is at 15.9% unemployment.
It all depends on who the administration decides to count and report on (or which number makes Oboma look better).

Jobs have been dropping like flies in an insecticide plant, yet the "official" number of unemployed is going down just as fast. That doesn't raise any red flags for you?

[1rudeboy]

Here's another link for you:

The UI figures are not produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Statistics on insured unemployment in the United States are collected as a by-product of UI programs. Workers who lose their jobs and are covered by these programs typically file claims ("initial claims") that serve as notice that they are beginning a period of unemployment. Claimants who qualify for benefits are counted in the insured unemployment figures (as "continued claims"). Data on UI claims are maintained by the Employment and Training Administration, an agency of the U.S. Department of Labor, and are available on the Internet at: http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp.

These data are not used to measure total unemployment because they exclude several important groups. To begin with, not all workers are covered by UI programs. For example, self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, workers in certain not-for-profit organizations, and several other small (primarily seasonal) worker categories are not covered. In addition, the insured unemployed exclude the following:

• Unemployed workers who have exhausted their benefits
• Unemployed workers who have not yet earned benefit rights (such as new entrants or reentrants to the labor force)
• Disqualified workers whose unemployment is considered to have resulted from their own actions rather than from economic conditions; for example, a worker discharged for misconduct on the job
• Otherwise eligible unemployed persons who do not file for benefits

I bolded the most important sentence for you. Please stop spreading false information. It's hard enough to discuss economic statistics as it is, without someone entertaining a misconception.

[longtermmemmory]

In Greece the unemployment rate for the young (as in college grads) is 60%!

Just wait.

[concerned about politics]

Yes. That's how they calculate the U6. It's much larger than the "reported" 7.7%.
It sort of depends on the meaning of the word "is" when it comes to the "official" numers.

[1rudeboy]

I'll try this again (from your comment #6):

If not eligible for unemployment,
You are counted.

your unemployment insurance has run out,
You are counted.

you're self employed,
You are counted.

or an unemployed farm worker....
You are counted.

[concerned about politics]

or an unemployed farm worker.... You are counted.

"DATA SNAP:US Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +146K; Jobless Rate 7.7%"

[1rudeboy]

Now you’ve gone from discussing the way the unemployment rate number is calculated to discussing the (various) “payroll” numbers. Seriously . . . you are in way over your head.

[1rudeboy]

Although this might help (from the article that follows the headline you provided):

DATA SNAP:US Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +146K; Jobless Rate 7.7%
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 146,000 last month, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate, obtained by a separate survey of U.S. households, fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008. [emphasis added]

[concerned about politics]

Whatever makes you happy. I have no problem agreeing to disagree.

[1rudeboy]

We’re not agreeing about anything. You are flat out wrong, and refuse to look at the evidence staring you in the face.

[bravo whiskey]

i am a freelancer and haven’t had any work in a while. i don’t pay unemployment so i don’t get unemployment. how does the feral government know i am unemployed if i don’t tell anyone?

[1rudeboy]

You don't have to tell anyone, they ask. There is the Current Population Survey, and the Current Employment Statistics survey.

Each comes with its own shortcomings, but the fact of the matter is that unemployment compensation does not factor into the calculations. Those that argue otherwise may as well be arguing that the Earth is flat.

The links I've provided so far are good places to start researching the differences between all the numbers, whether they go by the names of "initial claims," "continuing claims," "U3," "U6," "Ux," etc.

The primary confusion appears to lie (in the years I've been correcting people) in the differences between the way the "unemployment rate" is calculated, and the way the "labor force participation rate" is calculated (and how the latter affects the former). That confusion appears to lead people mistakenly to believe the exact opposite of what I posted in comment #9.

To summarize, unemployment compensation (or lack thereof, for whatever reason), self-employment status, farm or non-farm status, DO NOT FACTOR into the calculation of the unemployment rate.