Anacostia’s core long term problem is that it has far too many housing projects. There will be limits to gentrification as long as project density is high. The good news is that even dim bulb lefties have finally figured out that concentrated poverty is a poisonous thing. The effort now is to move to scattered site assisted housing and mixed income/mixed use neighborhoods. As old projects are closed/renovated/repurposed, they tend to morph into something different. That at least has been the case on and around Capitol Hill. Anacostia starts from deeper in the whole, but the same logic applies.
It won’t be a quick process, but I do think it will happen. As I said before, I know a number of people who live over there. All of them moved there within the last ten years, drawn by affordability and proximity to Capitol Hill and downtown. It’s a trickle, not a flood, but the area is perking up. Minnesota Avenue, MLK, and Good Hope Road all look better than they used to. And traffic in the ‘burbs just gets worse. Why sit through the Fairfax County Car Show on 395 twice a day when you can live in Anacostia and be downtown in under 10 minutes. (Heck, Frederick Douglass WALKED both ways for years while he lived at Cedar Hill. )
DHS moving into St. E’s could be a trigger. We’ll see. I lauughed at your comment about the gays leading the way, as I’ve made the same observation for years. My neighborhood expert on such things and his partner moved away a couple of years ago, to be replaced by a 30-something couple with two young kids. I’m afraid I’ve lost my connection to the gay grapevine.:)