“That’s why polls show support for gay marriage and referenda show no support for gay marriage.”
I agree that opinion polling is flawed on the issue, for a number of reasons. But if you look at the actual amendment votes by state, where and when they passed or not, and by how much, I don’t see a positive trend.
It wasn’t even an issue 30 years ago. Nevada passed its amendment by 67% in 2002. Hawaii passed its amendment at the very begining of the process, by 69% in ‘98. North Carolina passed its amendment by 61% in 2012 and was hailed as a very impressive victory. If NC had passed its amendment in 2002 it probably would have been in the mid-high 70% ranges, if you go by the other states around NC that passed amendments in that timeframe.
Of course the states that passed them in the high 70s will last a long time. Miss. passed one with the highest %, 86% in 2004. But some states only passed them in the 50% ranges. Ca and SD passed theirs by the lowest at 52%, Ca in 2008 and SD in 2006. I have my doubts if they would pass today. In fact, if our masters in the black robes uphold prop. 8 they will probably simply attempt to use another popular vote to repeal it. For their purposes, all they need is 51%.
Freegards
We'll see how long that lasts though. Down on the Block they don't do marriage and don't care.