Replies

Hard to believe we’ve just given up on the black vote. There won’t be a dark complexion candidate running each time for the dems and there are certainly a rising number of middle class and upper class blacks. Why aren’t we going after these folks, just to peel off a few percent at least.

Well, sure. Nobody's ever going to get 95 or 96 percent of the Black vote like Obama did in 2008. Obama's own share was down to 93 percent or so this year, and that will go down for other Democrats in later elections. But probably the Democrat share of the African-American vote will be well over 80 percent for the forseeable future.

FWIW, I found this on foxnews.com: "In 2008, black women had the highest turnout rate, 69 percent, of all groups." If that's a fact, why didn't we know that and make our predictions on that basis? If Black turnout was much higher than expected last time, why assume it would be much lower this time?

LBJ got 97% of the black vote. JFK had gotten only 75%.

Obama equalled LBJ"s record in 2008, but this year he only got 93% ~ which tells us that 7% of the black vote ~ not just black voters ~ went somewhere else.

Notice the Democrats are not crowing about getting out record numbers of black voters ~ and they didn't. The fewer who show up the lower the percentage who vote for Democrats. Once we get the out of date voter registration files corrected, the Democrat share of the remaining black vote is probably going to be back down there at JFK's level ~ that is, 75% tops!

Somebody who wants can come up with a quadratic equation that gives us an indication of what percent of the black vote is fraudulent ~ should be fairly simple ~ the fewer black people claimed to have voted in a given election, the lower the percentage of those votes that show up in the Democrat column. We control the number of black people who are registered by keeping registration files up to date ~ we do that by sending out voter registration cards to the last known address of the voter ~ those that are returned result in at least one theoretically black Democrat voter no longer being registered, and that turns into.......

BTW, you have to send those cards to everybody to win this game ~ you can't just target census blocks where the latest census tells you there are black voters. Do it for everybody ~