I think you’re unnecessarily panicking. At the time Gilmore ran for Senator, it had been 11 years since he ran a race and the grassroots wasn’t exactly on fire for him. His candidacy ended up a disaster on par with the hapless third tier Black GOP opponent to Chuck Robb in 1988.
It may turn out the federal (Senator/President) will be a tougher nut to crack from now on, if only because of the NOVA gubmint worker parasites who need big government to preserve their jobs. It’s turning into a Baja Maryland, unfortunately. I have family in Loudoun County, and they are not Republicans and are precisely the hordes turning VA the wrong way.
Fortunately, it probably benefits VA having statewide elections separately from federal, or it would be a different story. Unlike Mark Warner, who ran a respectable Senate race prior to his successful Gubernatorial one, Terry McAuliffe’s race in 2009 was a disaster, well underperforming usual Democrat areas. If I were the VA Dems, I wouldn’t want to even run him again. I just do not see any scenario where Cuccinelli loses (short of Bolling pulling a John Hager after his sour grapes loss to Earley in 2001, which was largely how Mark Warner won in the first place).
Didn’t they try to portray McDonnell as a fringe kook when his college thesis came up during the campaign? No one says they wouldn’t try to bag Cooch anyway, but who says he couldn’t overcome it? (and Allen, arguably, could have overcome the Macaca thing if not for his bad response to it)
I mostly agree with everything you say. I have been in Va. Politics since 1969 with Holton/Obenshain. And I have a bad feeling about this one. (And I thought Romney would carry Va by 8 points.)