The rise of the Greek Golden Dawn party is actually interesting, not because of the invective of Nazism, but because what, in practical terms, might result, if Greece “goes Nazi”.
Remember that not too long ago, Greece was taken over by a “right wing” military coup for seven years, which I suspect is similar in practice to what the Golden Dawn want.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_military_junta_of_1967-1974
To start with, a Golden Dawn-led Greece would likely include the following:
Extremely anti-communist and socialist.
Very Eurosceptic, likely either leaving the EU or being kicked out.
Xenophobic, deporting illegal and legal immigrants.
Renouncing their international debts, and removing Greece from ‘internationalist’ organizations and treaties. Likely including NATO, unless they get into an active spat with Turkey.
Forming alliances with other right wing European and Russian groups.
Interestingly, I doubt that Greece would be aggressive, with the one exception being towards the tiny country of Macedonia, which is kind of a Balkan powder keg, since it is claimed by just about everyone in the region, including Greece. In the balance they would probably decide it wasn’t worth it.
The bottom line for a “Nazi Greece” is probably that it would deeply unhinge the European leftists and socialists, would boot out a lot of foreigners, but otherwise would not be intolerable, though the leftists and socialists would pretend that it was.
In total, perhaps more like Franco’s fascist Spain, than fascist Italy or Nazi Germany. As long as they kept to themselves, nobody cares but communists and socialists.
Franco was no fascist.
A good analysis. I think a coup is likely in Greece, if an election doesn’t put Golden Dawn into power. They have over 50% of the police supporting them, and who knows what the figures are in Greece’s relatively small military.
They have already expressed a desire to punish immigrants (particularly those who cross the land border from Turkey), the yellow press, and politicians who sold the country out piece by piece. We’d see a lot of violence in Greece under this regime. The idea that they would rule as Hitler ruled is hard to imagine, simply because they don’t have the money or resources to become a “National Socialist” society. Germany was broke going into Hitler’s rule, but it still had many economic trump cards including natural resources, a wealthy group they could seize money from (the Jews), and one of the most work-oriented populations in Europe. Greece has NONE of these as far as can tell. In the end, it would likely just end up being a nationalist government like Serbia, which isn’t so bad.
We are likely to see a similar thing happen in Hungary, where Golden Dawn’s equivalent, Jobbik, essentially have control of several regions through a paramilitary force known as the Magyar Garda.
These regimes would leave the EU (if it is still around by then), or yes, be kicked out for their xenophobia and unwillingness to go along with Brussels.
As for conflicts, you may be underestimating the nature of the Balkans. If the EU is gone (which I think it will be), there is very little oversight anymore. The UN has proven its worthlessness in Syria. Golden Dawn have made clear that a greater Greece includes Macedonia, and if they build up their military (which would create jobs), a takeover is not so unlikely. I don’t rate Macedonia’s defensive capabilities, and authoritarian governments often use conflict as a rallying cry to unite the people.
Without oversight in the region, there will no doubt be other conflict as well. Hungary have their own axe to grind with Romania over Transylvania, which they believe is their territory. Kosovo will likely be taken back by Serbia, and I honestly would not be surprised if Greece and Serbia split Albania down the middle, (they have long considered the Albanians traitors for adhering to Islam back in the days of the Ottoman Empire).
My prediction is that we’ll see a very tight alliance form between Greece, Serbia, and Hungary, possibly Bulgaria as well.
When the EU breaks down, we’ll see looser coalitions of countries band together for their own security. Whatever happens, it will be interesting to watch.