Posted on 11/23/2012 5:18:31 AM PST by IbJensen
We’re next.
Our society is an interesting, if not scary, pot of diversity which some idiots proclaim is our strength.
The pot is being stirred and will erupt like Vesuvius.
Chickens are allowed to run pell-mell through the country side laying their eggs in unusual places and pooping on everything.
That is Californicate.
So you mean her front teeth are more yellow than her back teeth?
A good analysis. I think a coup is likely in Greece, if an election doesn’t put Golden Dawn into power. They have over 50% of the police supporting them, and who knows what the figures are in Greece’s relatively small military.
They have already expressed a desire to punish immigrants (particularly those who cross the land border from Turkey), the yellow press, and politicians who sold the country out piece by piece. We’d see a lot of violence in Greece under this regime. The idea that they would rule as Hitler ruled is hard to imagine, simply because they don’t have the money or resources to become a “National Socialist” society. Germany was broke going into Hitler’s rule, but it still had many economic trump cards including natural resources, a wealthy group they could seize money from (the Jews), and one of the most work-oriented populations in Europe. Greece has NONE of these as far as can tell. In the end, it would likely just end up being a nationalist government like Serbia, which isn’t so bad.
We are likely to see a similar thing happen in Hungary, where Golden Dawn’s equivalent, Jobbik, essentially have control of several regions through a paramilitary force known as the Magyar Garda.
These regimes would leave the EU (if it is still around by then), or yes, be kicked out for their xenophobia and unwillingness to go along with Brussels.
As for conflicts, you may be underestimating the nature of the Balkans. If the EU is gone (which I think it will be), there is very little oversight anymore. The UN has proven its worthlessness in Syria. Golden Dawn have made clear that a greater Greece includes Macedonia, and if they build up their military (which would create jobs), a takeover is not so unlikely. I don’t rate Macedonia’s defensive capabilities, and authoritarian governments often use conflict as a rallying cry to unite the people.
Without oversight in the region, there will no doubt be other conflict as well. Hungary have their own axe to grind with Romania over Transylvania, which they believe is their territory. Kosovo will likely be taken back by Serbia, and I honestly would not be surprised if Greece and Serbia split Albania down the middle, (they have long considered the Albanians traitors for adhering to Islam back in the days of the Ottoman Empire).
My prediction is that we’ll see a very tight alliance form between Greece, Serbia, and Hungary, possibly Bulgaria as well.
When the EU breaks down, we’ll see looser coalitions of countries band together for their own security. Whatever happens, it will be interesting to watch.
***Uni-Brow*** Haven’t seen one of those Cro-Magnon styles, in years. Imagine what her legs and armpits look like?
NO PICS PLEASE!
That’s how she gets the bark off of the trees.
Okay: I'm oversimplifying somewhat, but I'm doing so to show a tendency that's glossed over right now. As long as a large number of people think that the best response to failed policies is to double down, the spirit behind Golden Dawn will metastasize and spread across Europe.
The first Fascist leader in Europe was not Hitler: it was Mussolini. Until he agreed to be under the thumb of the Nazis, his rule didn't seem all that bad to the chattering classes in his heyday. In fact, none other than the New York Slimes had favourable articles about him circa 1930 - back when the Nazis were in about the same position as Golden Dawn is now.
Maybe Golden Dawn's rule will be like Mussolini's: shelve the democratic process, throw a few hundred political enemies into the hoosegow but treat them fairly decently while confined, no massacres or (initially) wars, hold up the Potemkin village of the trains being run on time. Although we have only case to go on, history shows that the first Fascist government isn't the big worry. It's the second, as ensconced in a much bigger and more powerful country.
And the second slides in courtesy of the legitimacy provided by the first.
I say this because Greece in in huge trouble for reasons not specific to Greece. We're not talking about a domestic breach of the Constitution, a domestic civil war [even if proxyish] or widespread domestic anarchy. The problem that Golden Dawn purports to double-down solve is trans-European. I'm tempted to say trans-First-World.
If one group of blokes get in and don't do that badly, we'll be lulled. And fascists of other nations will be encouraged. "Common problem, common solution" and so on.
Remember: in a very real way, full fascism is a double-down in the teeth of austerity. And there are lots of people whose response to austerity will be to double down.
Also remember: the relative 'civility' of Mussolini's rule eased the path for Hitler. Had Mussolini not taken over, it's highly unlikely that the Nazis would have won. Their apologists couldn't intimate that Hitler's fascism would be a lot like Mussolini's had there been no Mussolini. And Mussolini's Fascism did gain semi-legitimacy in the Western World as the '20s turned into the '30s.
No real dispute there, however, if you look at Germany of the period, there was an almost equal chance that it could go fascist, or that it could go communist. Ernst Thälmann, the chairman of the KPD, was in Stalin’s pocket, and was just as megalomaniac as was Hitler.
He would likely not have started World War II, but the end result could have been a communist Europe aligned with the Soviet Union, dominating the world militarily and murdering far more people than Hitler did.
True, and there are indeed other examples of what could be called “fascist” rule not being as bad as is made out. Chile is a good example. General Pinochet gets a horrible reputation, but his counterparts in places such as Argentina were far worse than he was. In fact, many in Chile today regard Pinochet as a hero.
My hope is that we won’t have to worry about the prospect of autocratic rule under men like Nikos Michaloliakos in any countries with geo-political significance.
Remember that in most European countries, Euroskeptic anti-immigration parties and leaders have a strong foothold already and are respectable individuals who are genuinely concerned for their countries.
You can break these counter-supernationalists down into three groups.
Group 1 - The Dutch Freedom Party, the Sweden Democrats, the True Finns, the Danish People’s Party, and the Swiss People’s Party.
These are groups that have an agenda of reversing Europe’s unfluence on their individual countries, getting rid of mass immigration (especially of Muslims), promoting faith and family again, and embracing truth while destroying political correctness. They are usually pro-Israel and pro-America. They are the new wave of what you could call “right wingers” in Europe
Group 2 - The National Front, the freedom party of Austria
These are groups that try to walk the line between the new right wing and the old remnants of Europe’s xenophobic past. While they emulate popular positions of those in group 1 (which is why they have a lot of youth support), they are also heavily influenced by the ‘old guard’, anti-semites, former fascists, and national socialists.
Then, there is Group 3 - Jobbik, Golden Dawn, possibly ATAKA
Controlled and operated by traditional, old style nationalists. Are more prone to using violence, many having been not only supporters of, but members of, fascist regimes. (I believe Michaloliakos was part of the Metaxas regime). They run their operation following the fascist playbook step by step, gaining popular support. Whether they would be more like Italy or Germany when all is said and done, is debatable, but yes, we should keep a close and skeptical eye on them, keeping in mind that what many of these European nations have right now can be classed as a dictatorship. The people have little to no control of their destiny anymore.
Beyond these impoverished countries in the east however, I could never see these kinds of people turning, let’s say Sweden, into an autocracy. I just don’t think the conditions could get to that stage unless something truly catastrophic happens, like an overnight collapse of the world economy. If totalitarian regimes seize control in Hungary or Greece, it won’t have much of an impact on the world. If it happens in France or Spain, then we can get a little worried.
What we see in Greece, and many other places (including here in the US) is a lot of government intrusion, government spending, government charity. When they run out of other peoples' money, the governments start looking around for new solutions. Well, the new solution is the same as the old solution -- they double down on Socialism, but they call it "far right" and they claim that it's a totally new approach. It isn't. But they hope to sell it to a public that is desperate for an easy fix.
“Euro Girls 2012”. NOW, yer talking!
A far, far cry from that Neanderthal.
Thanks for bringing up France. While I was away on caregiving duty, I mulled this scenario over. I'm only being speculative here - in a way, I'm going from out on a limb to out on a sub-branch - but here's how I think it could play out:
Golden Dawn gets into power and is inaugurated with a global firestorm of anger and fear. As time goes on, though, GD does govern like Mussolini. There's tyranny but no real terror. Most of the people who expected Hitler II seriously wonder if they overreacted.
With apologists using GD as a soother, a neo-Falagist government takes over Spain. Again, the same worldwide shock and anger - followed by...not that much. As with Greece, Spanish fascism seems to be little more than jailing a few thousand dissidents and compulsory calisthenics writ large. Again, most of the people who raised the hue and cry seriously wonder if they've overreacted. And this time, the hue-cryers are fewer. In genteel company, fascism is once again being referred to as the "Third Way."
Then, France. Right now, because of guilt over Vichy, French people largely take the "surrender monkey" comments in stride. But imagine what would happen if they see GD and neo-Falangist governing fascistically with little bloodshed. They take a look at their straitened prospects, look at the Muslim enclaves, look at Greece and Spain, and start asking themselves:
"Why are we, le pays de Napoléon, la France being treated with such open disdain?"
At that point, I'd worry. A lot. Recent history has lulled us right now to the fact that France was militarily aggressive in its heyday.
Thanks and agreed. But I want to add a proviso: fascists, once they become respectable, are very good at making left-wing policies seem right-wing. They also ashcan left-wing polices that reek of unicorns and ponies, and tend to "act" right-wing.
You want to find out where the political future is? Watch the beautiful women, Where they are, the men will flock to.
Well, if it comes to that, there would be three versions to the story.
The first would be hard to find, an objective view of their achievements and failures.
The second would be the extremely biased and hate filled interpretation promulgated by the the left, the socialists and communists.
And the third would be the MSM interpretation, likely so cockeyed and frivolous as to be useless. They aren’t even trying anymore. It would mostly lean to just reprinting the socialist and communist press release attacks, no doubt.
Yes, France may yet be the biggest surprise. After all, they currently have a socialist president who is destroying France’s economy. They just got downgraded... again. It would be interesting to see how a conflict in Europe might play out with Germany and France reversing their WWII roles. Not counting the US presence, Germany has a relatively small military, and how much longer can we afford to keep that presence in Germany? With President Bongo leading us “forward”, I doubt we’ll even be able to maintain our bases in South Korea, let alone Germany.
It’s amazing to think how quickly this illusion of a “global village” where we all get along could come crashing down with just one small shove. That shove might just be a war between Israel and Iran, the shutting down of the strait, and the economic implications that it would entail.
Despite TOTUS’ destruction of the job market, there’s one career in the coming decades that I guarantee will be stable. War correspondence. Sad times. :(
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