How likely is it that downscale Texans or Southerners would forever let their vote be determined by animosity for those across the Northern border? If you don't have the usual suspects to vote against, things can change pretty quickly.
Also, some people assume that a seceding state or region (or what remains of the rest of the country) would see an economic boom due to the break-up. I suspect the result of secession and disunion would be to make all the successor states economic backwaters, as investment flows to greener pastures abroad.
Lets see no onerous tax burden and federal regulation. Energy that is actually exploited for the peoples need. Some back water, the only back water is flowing in the heads of the federal apologists.