One problem with your analysis: the adminstration had this video excuse ready to go somehow. What a ridiculous, laughable misdirection. That this is what they are reduced to using, tells me that thy are covering something dramatic and utterly indefensible.
That is something (amongst a lot of others!) that has bugged me from the beginning. To the best of my knowledge (and I haven't had a lot of time to really run this down), the first mention anywhere that I have seen of this "video" was in the Tweets from the Cairo embassy on 9/11/12. (In that infamous tweet stream they started apologizing for this "video" that day.)
I would be interested to know if anyone has ever found any mention of this "video" prior to those tweets that day. (It seems to me like they had that "excuse" ready to go, for that day, and introduced it into the mix by plan. And that is highly suspicious in and of itself, IMO.)