[muawiyah]

Silver still didn't predict Obama's 7.5 million voter drop off. That means his real method is to pull this stuff out of his nether regions and toss it against the wall.

That he did better than the others was luck ~ probability that he'll do as well again is ZERO. But he'll get the marketing business this year and they won't.

[Coronal]

I’d hardly call it luck, considering that he called the last two presidential elections correctly (hitting 50 of 50 in the latest) and projected a significant Republican gain in the last mid-terms.

[FewsOrange]

You can pretend that it was luck if that makes you feel better but all the aggregators got most of the states right.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57546778-38/among-the-top-election-quants-nate-silver-reigns-supreme/