There are a lot of people claiming they nailed the results. Fact is, the types of returns we saw this election are statistically impossible. What model do you use when exit polls indicated blacks supported 0 by 93% and yet scores of districts report perfect support. That’s a statistical impossibility, but it’s not impossible when you kick out poll watchers for 5 hours,or shield watchers while ballots are being tampered with or lose 800 ballots supposidly cast for the D when it’s time to perform a recount and then the partial recount yields dramatically different results.
That’s some extremely sophisticated polling which takes those things into account.
Yup....one of the guys who NAILED this election is a fellow Freeper called jackmercer who’s work you can look up in 2 minutes. Nate Silver killed it. All the best polls this year caught it. How many Romney voters do you think live in the inner-city.....almost zero I expect. Want to bet Romney’s numbers in the inner-city are the same as McCain & Bush ?
Republicans don’t fight back. Why shouldn’t they lose? And why don’t we question Republicans’ willingness to lose? 2.5M McCain voters stayed home this year — six times the size of Obama’s win in the vote. The big question, aside from the modeling screw-up, is why we all believed a Romney support by R’s that wasn’t there. I believe the most distressing view: R’s believe a crash is coming and want it hung around Obama’s neck.