If you accept the exit polls, Obama won the age groups 18-29 (60% to 37%) and 30-44 (52%-45%). They totaled 46% of the electorate. Romney won the age groups 45-64 (51%-47%) and the 65+ (56%-44%). They totaled 54% of the electorate. It is obvious that the Reps are losing the lower age groups. Why? First, these groups are increasing their minority percentages due to immigration and higher birth rates among minorities compared to non-Hipanic whites. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as defined by the USG. Hence, each year that goes by adds to the Dem electorate and subtracts from the Rep electorate as non-Hispanic whites die and are not replaced in their ranks at the lower age groups.
Immigrants and minorities grow old as well, but their percentage of the total population is constantly increasing. By 2042 half of the country will be minorities as defined by the USG. We are also an aging population. By 2030 one in five residents of this country will be 65 or older--twice what it is now. Whether immigrants and minorities will become more Rep as they grow older is problematic since one's political affiliation is more akin to religion than anything else. You are literally born into it.
The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born. It is not a stretch to say that these immigrants, once they become citizens, will vote Dem 2 to 1.
We do not have an Hispanic problem. We have an immigrant, minority, and younger voter problem. The changing demographics of this country have electoral consequences and have for decades except the Rep political elites and pundits have failed to recognize it. Some of it has to do with the huge influence the Chamber of Commerce has over the GOP. They have been pushing more guest workers, more immigrants, and amnesty to keep the flow of cheap exportable labor coming into this country to reduce wages and increase profits. In the process they have privatized the benefits and socialized the costs, which are killing our schools, healthcare, and law enforcement. Now the GOP Establishment solution appears to be to embrace amnesty as a way of getting more minority and immigrant votes. The exact opposite will happen as it will increase the number of Dem voters and lose more of the GOP base who will be upset about such a move.
If you want to see a brief, chilling video about how the Dems and the SEIU feels about an amnesty and what it means, just watch and listen: At the America's Future Now! conference in Washington, DC on June 2, 2009, SEIU International Executive Vice President Eliseo Medina addressed attendees on why comprehensive immigration reform is an important issue for the progressive community to support, and how progressives can forge common ground on an immigration reform strategy.
The Dem Party has made itself the party of immigrants and minorities. It is almost tribal and has less to do with economics and self-interest than it has to do with tribal politics in a society that trumpets multiculturalism and diversity.
Demography is destiny. We appear to have reached a tipping point that many of us have for years been warning about, i.e., the electoral consequences. The Dems are becoming the permanent majority party. CA is the canary in the coal mine. It is totally lost to the GOP and it is only a matter of time before the entire state congressional delegation goes Dem. Bilbray, Lungren, and Mack lost their seats this time. Almost all the remaining Reps were in competitive races.
The loss of predominantly non-Hispanic white states in the Northeast and Midwest are harder to explain. It seems to boil down more into differences in political philosophy and the role of government than demographics. The culture of dependency has take hold. And our education system is manufacturing Dem voters at both the K-12 level and higher education.
Forget ‘young voter’ stuff. They vote more conservative as they get older. Always have.
How do we turn it around?