Posted on 11/08/2012 7:35:11 AM PST by LdSentinal
One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004." The parallels to that year certainly were eerie: An incumbent adored by his base but with middling approval ratings nationally faces off against an uncharismatic, wishy-washy official from Massachusetts. The race is tight during the summer until the president breaks open a significant lead after his convention. Then, after a tepid first debate for the incumbent, the contest tightens, bringing the opposition tantalizingly close to a win, but not quite close enough.
The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted. Republicans in 2004 won some surprising Senate seats, and picked up a handful of House seats as well. The GOP was cheered, claiming a broad mandate as a result of voters’ decision to ratify clear, unified Republican control of Congress and the presidency for the first time since 1928. As Bush famously put it, “I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.”
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Jay Cost calculates the loss in white voters may be as high as 10 million. Turnout was WAY down for Obama across the board (he got fewer votes the GWB in 2004), but unfortunately the decline in turnout was even greater among whites. That, ultimately, is what made the difference. http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-barack-obama-and-triumph-identity-politics_662010.html?utm_source=Morning%20Jay%20Alert%20w%20Ad%20words%20-%2011/08/2012&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TWS%20Alerts
During the primaries a lot of people said "my candidate, or I won't vote". I guess they kept their word, - they showed us! Unfortunately, the Country will suffer for at least four years, and possibly forty, depending on Hussein puts on the SCOTUS. Then again, I have serious doubts if the Country will last that long.
But they showed us! /s
Why do people keep on posting this crap. There are millions of votes to be recorded yet. CA has only reported 69% of the vote, WA 55%, etc. Obama is going to receive around 65 million and Romney will go over 60 million.
In 2008, my brother, a union nurse, was taking care of our dying father at home. I had found my brother had denied my father access to conservative talk radio - my dad’s last passion for living. Dad passed away before the election. I wonder how many of our ailing and oldest boomer generation have been kept away from the media and the 2012 voting booth by their younger generations?
I never once saw any dems worried about this election even with the polls showing candidates so close..and in some congressional races there were wide gaps..but dems won..how?
It was all in those "early voters"--Romney won. We were cheated. Proving it is hopeless.
The excerpt makes your critique look cogent, but deeper in the article the author does a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the still uncounted west coast vote and still comes up with lots of white voters staying home, then does an analysis specific to Ohio and finds the same phenomenon.
Did 7 million voters stay home or were some of their votes discarded?
It’s the MILITARY VOTES that went missing (until - surprise, surprise - November 7th) that bothers me; and is the most disgraceful scandal of all for Obama.
Because there are a lot of folks who don't understand the most basic use of statistics, even the basic use and misuse of simple percentages. California would explain a significant chunk of the 'missing' votes.
We'll still have a dropoff from 2008 when all the votes are in, but smaller than those currently being discussed.
That happened in '04 and '06. I remember that we were going to teach the GOP a lesson by staying home. It may have happened again because some people felt that Romney was too moderate, but I think that would have been a minor group. I suspect that the hurricane that devastated the east coast may have been the biggest factor. That and there may have been a little voter fraud thrown in.
Not a mystery.
Romney was a vile RINO who got elected by flip-flopping on his position and lying about not only himslef, but the honest conservatives he ran against.
Many people saw through the white washed tomb of Romney’s exterior into the rotted core of corruption and death that is his soul.
I get the same feeling - results are not equal to the turnout. Some votes got "lost."
This election my 95 year old grandmother asked a neighbor for help filling out her absentee ballot. The neighbor berated my grandmother for asking for help voting for Romney and marked my grandmother’s ballot with an Obama vote and sealed the envelope for return.
When I heard about this I was irate - only to have my grandmother tell me that she received a call to let her know that the ballot was marked incorrectly and was invalid. The local voting official then drove to my grandmother’s house to help her correctly fill out another absentee ballot.
She got it right the second time and “voted for the rich guy.”
If the 7-10 million number is correct, we still need to ask where were these voters staying home? In Texas? Oklahoma? Or did they stay home in Wisconsin, Ohio, and FL? The election was only really contested in 7-8 states, so a decline in voting in the other 40+ states would not be consequential.
Yes, let’s blame and demonize the voters who we will need to change their minds and come vote for us in the next election. That sounds like a real winning strategy.
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