The Case of the Missing White Voters (7,000,000 of them!)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/08/12 | Sean Trende

[TonyInOhio]

One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004."

~ SNIP ~

The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted.

~ SNIP ~

But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.

~ SNIP ~

In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.

This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home.

Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.

[tayper]

I heard something about our votes being counted in Spain?

[ForGod'sSake]

All the post mortems aside, recall the hype before and during the election: RECORD TURNOUT was the talk of the town. EVERYWHERE!!! RECORD TURNOUT in early voting. RECORD TURNOUT in absentee voting. RECORD TURNOUT at the polls. LONG LINES at most if not all polling stations. MANY polling stations stayed open late to accomodate the LONG LINES. And NOW we’re led to believe it was all just a figment of our collective imaginations... What happened to the votes???

[Brookhaven]

I wrote in my book that the GOP establishment would rather lose with a moderate than win with a conservative. That's why I wrote the book, to find a way to win without relying on the GOP.

I didn't see anything in this election to change my mind.

The Conservative Hand: a Manifesto to Achieve Conservative Political Goals


www.TheConservativeHand.com

 The American Legitimate Tax Second Party

 alt2p.org

[metmom]

True, but you have to have a GOP leadership that cares, and obviously they don’t since they won’t fight against it.

[JimBianchi11]

You are right, but I was factoring the fraud factor.

Republicans need to win with a large margin or the Dems will steal it.

Bush/Gore was close enough that I was sure they would steal it.(and they tried)

[flaglady47]

“It’s clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose.”

Then explain how true blue through and through conservatives like Mia Love and Allen West, as well as other conservatives in many states lost also.

[snowrip]

Unhappily for Obamao, UN treaties do not supercede the US Constitution.

[detective]

There were longer lines to vote than anyone had seen. There were record wait times required to vote. Voters who voted for Romney reported that the voting machines recorded their vote for Obama.

It amazes me that so many FReepers blindly believe the story that Republican voters didn't vote and that turnout was higher in Democrat areas.

There was huge attendance at Republican rallies before the election.

I don't have the proof but it appears that there was massive vote fraud in the battle ground states. Instead of recriminations and hand wringing perhaps it might be better to look into this.

[lonevoice]

My guess is that of these white voters who didn’t vote, a large percentage of them don’t pay taxes, for whatever reason, and very few of them work in the private sector or own businesses. We may find a surprising percentage of them have Obamaphones.

This could be the first generation of voting age white Americans who have little or no desire towards accomplishment or achievement.

As I heard Dennis Miller say this morning, running Marco Rubio in 2016 wouldn’t appeal to this demographic. The “O” at the end of his name wouldn’t matter unless it had a lot of O’s after it and a dollar sign in front of it.

[old curmudgeon]

Since you did not vote, you should have the character to keep you opinion to yourself.

People who don’t vote give up the most precious of our rights and are not smart enough to give advice to anyone.

[StAnDeliver]

"Fascinating, and opposite to the prevailing conventional wisdom about why Romney lost. It's clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose."

This was purely a gotv beat.

"Early voting gave Dems weeks to ship low info voters to polls." - Dan Gainor (Media Research Council)

[Missouri gal]

Yeah, no question they stole Philadelphia, and probably therefore Pennsylvania. From what I read, they ramp up votes before voting begins. You have to check the vote count on the machine at the beginning to make sure it reads zero, or you won’t be able to catch that. That’s why they threw out the Republican poll watchers at the beginning of the day. I’m more curious what happened with Ohio. Failure to count? Republicans probably don’t have the money to search out the fraud, and that’s a big shame. We may never get another chance.

[mo]

http://www.umich.edu/~lawrace/disenfranchise1.htm

[StAnDeliver]

"The key factor was the Bain attacks in swing states. That kept blue collar types who were not at all keen on Obama home. They didn’t like Obama, but didn’t feel motivated to vote for Romney."

Nope. Got beat by early voting, and we've got to figure out how to strangle handle it.

"Early voting gave Dems weeks to ship low info voters to polls." - Dan Gainor (Media Research Council)

[Psalm 144]

“We need to go back to one day voting and paper ballots supplemented with a photo id requirement and 24hour indelible purple ink. We do not need or want any computer assistance in tabulating our votes. The old fashioned way may take longer but vote integrity is worth it. These remedies are simple and common sense but I’ll fall over in a faint if they are enacted any time soon. We should also require that all military ballots are counted before any others.”

I agree with all of this.

[mo]

BTW...”Missing Voters” ...is a distraction...look for the “excess voters”...and you’ll find the answers...

Listening to descriptions of how “Democrats got out their ground game” with “superior ability to bring those to the polls who normally would never go” by the commentators on Fox election night..made me realize..what they actually have done is track names that HAVE NOT VOTED IN MANY, MANY elections cycles....and vote them.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/23/No-Car-Finds-2-214-Registered-Voters-110-Years-of-Age-Older

A well-funded project, county-by-county..to examine the names signed in at at the polls..and going out to find those individuals..you’ll find they were never physically at he polls..or they themselves never filled out the absentee ballot....or their names in the death registers.(or both!!)

[firebrand]

Isn’t it now illegal to take jury members from the voting rolls? One of the voting-rights acts.

[cherokee1]

Rush is just now going thru the numbers in more detail. Fewer Republicans voted for Romney than did for McCain. About three (3) million Republicans DID NOT vote. That’s enough to have put Romney up by about 100K. Nice work sliders. Staying home worked out great and you got the Obamuzzie you deserve. Now I’m going to spend the other half of my campaign money on ammunition.

[firebrand]

True. They blunted the force of the most amazing grassroots movement in modern politics.

I have watched this phenomenon ever since I got into politics: the Republicans are more afraid of the conservatives in their own party than they are of the Marxist Muslim-supporting Democrats. Because it threatens their wee privileges as big cheeses in the party.

[Smokin' Joe]

I’d look at the downticket races as well, especially the Senate. That didn’t make sense, either, especially when those races went to a Dem contrary to all other races in the state.