I suspect the 2012 results were equally shocking to the Democrat pollsters.
Did the new Democrat wonder boy Nate Silver predict that Obama would get 9 million fewer votes in 2012, and still win?
Of course not.
Did Nate Silver predict that Romney would get 2.4 million votes less than McCain?
Of course not.
Did Nate Silver predict that minority voters would increase by 2% in 2012?
Of course not.
zeestephen wrote:
“I suspect the 2012 results were equally shocking to the Democrat pollsters.
Did the new Democrat wonder boy Nate Silver predict that Obama would get 9 million fewer votes in 2012, and still win?”
exactly right ! the polls are mostly guessing, the errors associated with nonresponse bias, turnout modelling... etc. dwarf the sampling error.
Nate Silver is the hero of this election, but will be the goat the next time there is a major shift in voting behavior (like 1980)
he’s like an economic forecaster, works fine if this election is like the last election, but if something unexpected happens, he will never see it coming...