You beat me to it! I was just doing EXACTLY the same analysis and coming up with EXACTLY the same conclusion. And note, these are the first real hard facts of this election.
Now let me add something to your analysis. If we assume that the extra Republican enthusiasm in this county plays out across the country, then R’s will outperform their registration by 5%. Since the D’s have a 3.5% advantage in registration, that would mean an overall R+1.5% electorate!! If that happens you can take any poll you have ever seen and add at least 3.5% and as much as 10% for Romney!
This matches very neatly with what the folks at Unskewed Polls predicted yesterday:
“The current electorate is made up of 36.9 percent registered Democrats, 33.3 percent registered Republicans and 29.8 percent independent voters. This is based on current and recent survey data from the various QStarNews polls and surveys.
Because of higher enthusiasm levels on the Republican side, the actual makeup of the voters that participate in the 2012 election is projected to be 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. From this electorate, the popular vote is projected to be 51.4 percent for Romney and 47.9 percent for Obama.”
http://unskewedpolls.com/2012electorate_2.cfm
If Pasco county is representative. you can even add 1 or 2% to Romney’s totals!!
WE ALL GOT SCREWED BY GOV’T-SPONSORED VOTER FRAUD TONIGHT. Obama’s been working on this for nearly 4 years. Went quite smoothly, didn’t it.