Intrade's betting on Obama (paid out $650,000 already-Obama win)

Cnn.com ^

[listenhillary]

The race to the White House is neck-and-neck, according to the polls. But in the world of gambling and prediction markets, the outcome of Tuesday's election is plain as day.

President Obama has a 71.5% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, according to Intrade, a website where users place bets on everything from politics to Academy Award winners.

That gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 28.5% chance of winning.

If you don't like those odds, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said Monday that it was already paying out bets that Obama would win, a day before voters went to the polls.

[RitchieAprile]

the mathematics of probability work differently in the UK?

[dfwgator]

It’s like the South Park episode where Jesus and Satan arranged a boxing match, everyone bet on Satan because they were sure he would win, then Satan takes a dive, and it turned out he was the only one who bet on Jesus to win, so he wound up with all of their money.

[profit_guy]

"Does anyone know Intrade’s success rate on these things?"

A. They had Kerry at 71% four hours before the polls closed in 2004

B. They were at 70-75% that the USSC would overturn Obamacare

C. They are basing their numbers off BS polls

D. OR, and I know this sounds conspiratorial, but I wouldn't put it past the Dems to blow a few million dollars to try to skew Intrade in hopes of effecting the election

[Crimson Elephant]

What possible reason is there to pay out early? There is no advantage to doing so. That makes less than any sense. It is something out of Orwell.

[stephenjohnbanker]

” I predict they’ll be renaming the place INDEBT “

: )

[listenhillary]

By Ben Rooney November 6, 2012: 12:55 PM ET
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/11/06/intrade-obama-romney/

Is the only source for this I have found. It makes no sense for them to pay out.

[library user]

this+same+irish+bookmaker+paid+out+early+for+scott+walker.+The+day+before+the+race+i+believe.+And+they+were+right.+

[Paddy Irish]

This is BS, no bookmaker pays out before an event. It’s true that Romney is a 2.5 to 1 underdog, but it’s almost impossible for a US citizen to make a wager on the election. It can be done but you have to Western Union the money to the Philippines first. The high odds on Romney is partly because of the staggering amount bet on Obama way back to the beginning of this year and the fact that all the people betting are from Europe and Russia.

[KoRn]

Over the years, I’ve found that these betting/stock trading sites are absolutely WORTHLESS are predictors of future events. They just follow the polls, and news of the day in general. IGNORE THEM(unless you want to take a shot at earning some easy money).

[Revel]

“they Must KNOW S O M E T H I N G !!!!”

Yeah they do. The election is rigged.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

Both of these betting agencies are Irish, and I wouldn’t be surprised if many of these bets are in effect campaign contributions to European leftist candidates.

Remember Hillary Clinton’s cattle futures deal? If the price went up, she won. If the price went down, somebody else lost. The scoundrels who were giving her that “no-lose” were in effect not only paying her off, but then writing off any losses, if they had any, and not just other investors.

[concerned about politics]

That makes less than any sense. It is something out of Orwell.

Probably just some kind of money laundering. They don't have a very good record of being right.

[RoosterRedux]

see where INTRADE is at 10pm tonight

Exactly!

At this point, it's impossible to call. But I would rather have money on Mitt than Obama any day.

[Doogle]

same number was there three weeks ago

[AmericaUnited]

I bet they were reimbursed for this. This is more the “it’s inevitable Republicans so don’t bother voting” garbage.

[SES1066]

There’s not a bookmaker in the world that pays out before the event.

Sorry but I must disagree, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has done this many times before. It is quite apparently a marketing decision that reaps, as we see here, large amounts of publicity.

Still, I put this and Intrade in the same catagory as the multiple reports that we have had on how Obama is far more popular in China, Kenya, Europe and other foreign places. Totally irrelevant and worthy of, at the most, a yawn.

Now, if we could have an investigation of foreign campaign contributions ... that is relevant!

[Anima Mundi]

Soros michief? Maybe this is the “declare victory early” story we heard in order to discourage Republican voters.

[preacher]

There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/
They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

[lwd]

Publicity stunt to get the sheep to put their money on 0bama at -350 ....which is a sucker bet to begin with

[brent13a]

Maybe this is the “declare victory early” story we heard in order to discourage Republican voters.

I'd wager there are quite a few americans that don't know who or what intrade is, and there are many more who could care less. If this is their "discouragement" trick then it's pretty freakin weak.