So that goes from 2008 Bobo +4.8% in Ohio to 2012 Mitt up +.5% in early voting. They’ve erased Bobo’s victory margin in early voting alone.
OHIO EARLY VOTE: In Obama's 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. '08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%: ... OH EARLY VOTE: Clear from this data that we are headed for a less Obama-favorable turnout model than '08, but far from clear who will win OH .... Not sure if @fivethirtyeight took down tweet. But to argue this data suggests only a 0.9% decline in Obama margin seems a little dismissive.Ok, I've replicated @fivethirtyeight math that gets him 53.9% vs. 53.0%. But he's assuming proportional Obama dropoffs within counties. ... @fivethirtyeight When Dem areas are down big and GOP areas up, it suggests Dem enthusiasm drop across board, even in GOP counties. ...
@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08 ... By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain
@fivethirtyeight Here, you'll see a story of both Dem turnout drop AND GOP rise. Dems 5.7% '08 adv. down to 0.4%.