Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49% (Romney Must Win VA, FL, And Either OH/WI)

RasmussenReports ^ | November 05, 2012

[Steelfish]

Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49%

An Unpredictable End to a Very Predictable Election By Scott Rasmussen Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48% Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% Sign up for free daily updates

November 05

The pivotal presidential state of Ohio remains all tied up on the eve of Election Day.

The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio is still one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections, along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 pm Eastern tomorrow. If Romney wins Virginia and Florida, he also will need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to be on track to capture the White House.

The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May.

Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.

Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and it’s Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Here are the scenarios:
Romney takes all the McCain 2008 states, plus NC VA FL IN CO. This yields 257 EVs. Then only one of the following must be won for a Romney victory:
1. OH(18) -or-
2. PA(20) -or-
3. MI(16) -or-
4. MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6) or...] -or-
5. WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6) or...] -or-
6. NV(6) + IA(6) (the tie scenario).

[paul544]

Unfortunately Romney had to spend so much time winning back FL and VA, which McCain/Bush lost in 2008, that he didn’t have time to get out to these swing states and earn a clear lead.