That’s encouraging that they are wrong sometimes. I can only assume that with all the money raised for the Fraud a good amount of it was spent on Intratrade to make it look like he was a winner.
I would assume people are betting for real on most of what they predict and not using the bets to manipulate public opinion, as you have pointed out in this instance.
Thanks
It’s too small a market to be ‘smart.’ In baseball, maybe, there are real stats, so it’s a smart market. Not this time.
People are betting ‘gambling money’ and not real investment money. Also, they are betting conventional wisdom. They are not mostly American, so they don’t have their ears to the ground - especially as poll skews go.
Any small market like this is open to distortions. This year, it is way way way distorted based on a single assumption that the pollsters are baking into all their numbers.
They’re not being dumb. Neither is Nate Silvera at the Times. They are just unaware, can’t believe, that the media polls could be wrong. If you believe the polls, then Obama is a good investment.
What’s really going on, though, is that if you understand the skew, then you have the equivalent of legal insider information.
Intrade is NOT inside info. It’s mostly european money. They know so little about America, but think they know so much.
Obama going down hard. Count on it.