This is a scary change. But, they are projecting an even electorate compared to past polls, which accounts for a closer race. I hope for an R+ turnout.
Are they projecting an even turnout election or are they just saying this is what an even turnout election would look like? The latter makes more sense to me because all the polling shows a Republican enthusiasm edge (more likely to vote) and an increase in self identification which translates into a Republican turnout advantage.
Also how does this model allocate the independent vote which by all measures I’ve seen is a 10-20% Republican advantage?