As long as Romney is President, I don’t care what the numbers are!
I dont like this.
Would think with your turnout model a little larger Romney win. Trying to calculate the Indy split
That’s exactly what a consultant I know is predicting. 285she and 50-51% Mitt win.
I think this map is nearly the same as Roves, except he had NH going red.
This is quite different than what they had out about a week ago. Damn that Chris Christie. But I will take the win!!!
I think Romney will absolutely win Wisconsin
Sounds like they’re hedging - this is not what their numbers indicate.
They are taking out ‘business insurance’ -> stay close to the herd, but on the right side of the herd.
They still get to say, like Ras and Gallup “well, like everyone else we missed, but hey, we identified the skew, and we picked the winner, putting us in a rare 5% of pollsters”
Meanwhile, if the world goes crazy and Obama wins, they’re only off by a a few points.
This is business insurance, same as Ras and Gallup and a lot of the rest.
UnSkewed Polls is a joke. They have a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of party id. I’ve posted about this exhaustively before but rest assured, they don’t know what they are doing. I’ve made my projections based on statistical data plugged into SPSS many times over the past 3 days and I don’t like the results I got....at all...but I am pretty sure they are accurate.
I don’t throw out the results because I don’t like them, data are data and we have to deal with them as much as we have to deal with the rising and setting of the sun. But unlike the rotation of the earth, we CAN change the future data with our actions.... in 2014 and 2016. And trust me, we will do waaaay better in 2014. But this election season’s data is baked in now.