Posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
If that latest Rasmussen Party ID affiliation is correct, this is going to be a MASSIVE BLOWOUT!!
Republicans UP 3% - DUmmies DOWN almost 2% from the 2010 elections
And we ALL KNOW what happened then! This has GOT to be a 55-45 BLOWOUT or BETTER!
I want to do some SERIOUS channel surfing tomorrow when the poll results start rolling in, to experience the SHOCK AND AWE the Media Morons are gonna hopefully get!
I didn’t get that impression from the campaign events over the weekend.
We are a divided country in many ways but more people want change than the status quo this year.
That desire for it is the only reason Americans are ready to fire the President. Its all about the economy, stupid.
If it had been in good shape, Obama would have been easily re-elected.
I don’t know why everybody is wiggin’ out over this. The trend is our friend, Romney is ahead of Obama. Barry has never reached 50% in one of these polls. He’s not gonna win this election.
Excellent comment. A big problem for Silver is that he doesn't note that his "Obama 83% likely to win" should read, even with his flawed model, "Obama 83% +/- 15%". He does not note that there is variance in his model.
And while PECOTA is a good model for baseball forecasting, you can grab any issue of Baseball Prospectus and see how far off many of his estimates were.
I don't think he's insincere, but I do think his models have flaws and he refuses to acknowledge those flaws; instead projecting an aura of certitude that you can't do in mathematical modeling.
I don’t know why everybody is wiggin’ out over this. The trend is our friend, Romney is ahead of Obama. Barry has never reached 50% in one of these polls. He’s not gonna win this election.
What is nuts about the Rasmussen and Gallup polls is that they are not sampling based on there own party identification polls. Gallup has R+3 and Rasmussen R+5.
Right in line with what I expected. Sandra gave Obama a large bounce, we musn’t kid ourselves. I am heartened to see that R maintains at least a minimal lead in this one, because it tells me that in all likelihood, Obama’s bounce was short lived, and the current reality, at this very moment in time, is more favorable to Romney that even this poll suggests, because a lot of the “bounce” is still in there.
Love your country
VOTE ROMNEY/ RYAN
Somebody forgot to consider voter fraud
Romney should win a D+2 electorate. If it gets above that level, then he is in a real danger zone.
I personally am anticipating a D+3 turnout. It won’t be nearly as favorable for us as 2010 when a number of RAT voters stayed home. The Dems are getting out their vote as well this time. It also won’t be nearly as bad as 2008 when everything went the Dems’ way.
A D+3 electorate puts us right on the cusp. The election truly could swing either way. I think Romney somehow manages to find just enough votes in Ohio to bring home the victory, but Larry Sabato’s projection wouldn’t shock me either.
Bottom line is get out and vote and make sure you drag as many other like minded people as you can to the polling place with you. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Ohio headed to recounts / the court system.
Lets do all we can to get this above the margin of fraud and bring an end to the reign of the worst President in the history of our country.
Generally agree with you. One exception to this rule however: 1972-—George McGovern routinely had bigger and more enthusistic crowds towards the end of the campaign. We all know how that one turned out.
Rush confirmed that pew has it 49 o 48 R and IT IS THEIR PROJECTION THAT obama WINS 50%o 48%R... just a guess on the part of the communists at pew.
LLS
I thought you were mocking him, but I wasn’t sure. Sarcasm is hard to interpret at times in text.
What is nuts about the Rasmussen and Gallup polls is that they are not sampling based on there own party identification polls. Gallup has R+3 and Rasmussen R+5.
Yes the national polls are very reflective of which way the electoral college will go. The only time you have splits is when it is very close as in 2000.
I still don’t understand the Obama “bounce” from Sandy. What exactly did he do? All I saw was a photo op. People are going hungry and thirsty. People there are also having to wait hours for a little gas. I don’t see Obama doing anything to help these people. So we have people all over the country saying at the last minute “Oh yeah I want four more years of Obama” because of what? I don’t get it. Why is he getting a bump for doing nothing?
The Sandy bounce is dissipating, IMO.
Even Madcow was on with Andrea Mitchell moments ago and admitted that Dems way underperformed in early/absent voting in OH and that this might not be enough to offset GOP election day voting.
Interesting.
Confirms what many of our Ohio insiders have been saying on here.
I think we take Ohio (barely) and take the election (barely).
This isn’t making sense.....my only theory on this is that Obama since he was born.....has been treated differently. He’s been given everything and everyone else has carried him, protected him, and promoted him. These pollsters may not be the exception either. From what I see and what I know in my heart, Mitt has this.
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