[goldstategop]

Romney will win OH tomorrow.

Obama is under 50%. Not a good place to be a day out from the election.

[American Constitutionalist]

Rush just said in all the national polls Obama does not even break 50 %.
Does not bode well for the incumbent.

[nathanbedford]

Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the president leads 50% to 42%.

This is the problem. Romney probably will not win Ohio if this statistic is real but it is an outlier in the sense that everyone else has Romney carrying the independents throughout the nation.

Another interesting aspect:

Both candidates earn roughly 90% support from voters in their own party.

As you point out in a companion thread, a point or 2 deviation in intensity can dramatically alter the final score and 90% for Republicans in this atmosphere strikes one as unreasonably low.